Covid-19 response

I think the reason why we saw no transmission at the huge beach gatherings over summer was in my reckoning because of the sun. The sun supplies plenty of u.v outside and drives vitamin d supply and fresh air disperses particles. I have a theory that this is what drives outbreaks of cold and flu over every winter without fail. During winter the days are shorter (less hours of sun) and less intense (softer and lower in the sky). Add less hours of light, more time spent in artificially lit buildings.

So based on these factors, being outside in the sun (u.v and vit D), fresh air, a virus would be a very low risk.
Whilst I do agree fresh ai, uv and vit d all help how do you know there were no transmissions at the beaches? People from all over coming together and scattering again would be hard to trace to the beach.

For the record my son caught it outdoors along with 8/12 people present together at that time, there was literally no other place possible, admittedly it was in winter not the beach in summer. So even that isn’t fool proof.
 
I think the reason why we saw no transmission at the huge beach gatherings over summer was in my reckoning because of the sun.
Outside is safer than inside. Also many of the photos showing allegedly crowded beaches were carefully taken to show that and in many cases the beaches weren't crowded at all. I doubt vitamin D makes a big enough difference to matter and maybe UV does but I'd guess just fresh air is sufficient to explain it all. (Being deficient in vitamin D is bad, but beyond that there's a whole set of proposed things that vitamin D supplements might help with that turn out not to be helped by the supplements.)
 
Whilst I do agree fresh ai, uv and vit d all help how do you know there were no transmissions at the beaches?
That would be like asking how do you know if the vaccines worked. I mean, say you wanted to test how well your insulin works at reducing blood sugar, you could try missing a dose for one meal and then take if for another meal. This easy to perform experiment would provide a very good (evidence based) indication of how well the insulin is working, because you've taken it and not taken it with a meal. There would be no need to rely on claims from official studies or manufacturers etc

Now, for the vaccine, how can you know for yourself that it has worked?
 
That would be like asking how do you know if the vaccines worked. I mean, say you wanted to test how well your insulin works at reducing blood sugar, you could try missing a dose for one meal and then take if for another meal. This easy to perform experiment would provide a very good (evidence based) indication of how well the insulin is working, because you've taken it and not taken it with a meal. There would be no need to rely on claims from official studies or manufacturers etc

Now, for the vaccine, how can you know for yourself that it has worked?
Not at all the same. They did studies and tests on how figures were before and after vaccines. They didn’t for beach visits.

But you are the one that made the claim beaches didn’t causes infections and all I want to know is on what basis you made the claim
 
Not at all the same. They did studies and tests on how figures were before and after vaccines. They didn’t for beach visits.

But you are the one that made the claim beaches didn’t causes infections and all I want to know is on what basis you made the claim
According to Prof Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at Edinburgh University who sits on the government’s SPI-M committee, the chance of a super-spreader event among the crowds that turned up from Bournemouth to Southend was minimal in theory – and nonexistent in practice.

“Over the summer we were treated to all this on the television news, pictures of crowded beaches, and there was an outcry about this,” he told MPs. “There were no outbreaks linked to public beaches. There’s never been a Covid-19 outbreak linked to a beach, ever, anywhere in the world, to the best of my knowledge.”

 
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It was a wrong/incorrect prediction. A mistake in that sense.

Doesn’t mean the person didn’t have reasonable grounds to believe that prediction would be correct at the time it was made. Simply turning out to be wrong doesn’t mean it was a lie or a pipe dream.
So as a lay person, do you think the virus would have been gone by summer in 2021?
 
Revealed: How Boris Johnson asked spies to plan a military raid on Dutch Covid vaccine factory to seize five million UK-bought AstraZeneca jabs that the EU 'stole' at the height of the pandemic when Britain's jab rollout left Brussels in the shade

 
Real-world effectiveness of child mask mandates against SARS-CoV-2 transmission or infection has not been demonstrated with high-quality evidence. The current body of scientific data does not support masking children for protection against COVID-19.

Another study

The paper's this one, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2211029

There was correspondence so the authors conducted further analysis which is published in an appendix, https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2211029/suppl_file/nejmoa2211029_appendix.pdf
 
Another study

The paper's this one, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2211029

There was correspondence so the authors conducted further analysis which is published in an appendix, https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2211029/suppl_file/nejmoa2211029_appendix.pdf
Yet under oath, none of these types of studies are ever mentioned. They were quick to mandate something when they had no evidence (and still to this day at the covid inquiry claim there is no evidence) masks would make any difference which could possibly explain why they never made them available for free to the public.

Professor Dame Jenny Harries, who now heads up the UK Health Security Agency, said the evidence that coverings reduced transmission is 'uncertain' because it is difficult to separate their effect from other Covid curbs.

@Bruce Stephens how much difference (a.r.r) would you expect wearing a mask would make given the vaccines only offer a 1% absolute risk reduction?

Even if decisions made during covid were based on the a flip of a coin alone, we'd expect to see some decisions to be right, even a broken clock gives the right time twice a day.
 
@Bruce Stephens how much difference (a.r.r) would you expect wearing a mask would make given the vaccines only offer a 1% absolute risk reduction?
The finding of the paper is about reducing illness (and absences) in schools (I think at the time they were testing and positive cases were encouraged to stay away for 5 days, so not just illness). Those seem worthwhile goals even if the children (and staff) didn't die.

In general, being infected by viruses isn't good. Reducing infections is a good thing, even when the infection isn't likely to actually kill you.
 
I agree, so what did the novel vaccines do to prevent infections?
They reduced them. Initially quite a bit, later less so. They seem to reduce the harms of infection even for people not that badly affected (rates of long covid seem to be reduced generally). Of course that wasn't the goal, and they're still very effective at reducing the risks of hospitalisations and death.
 
They reduced them. Initially quite a bit, later less so. They seem to reduce the harms of infection even for people not that badly affected (rates of long covid seem to be reduced generally). Of course that wasn't the goal, and they're still very effective at reducing the risks of hospitalisations and death.
I don't think everyone shares such conviction to the sales figures.

Pfizer are currently being sued over a number of claims made about their trials, efficacy and claims and like Moderna about how they influenced government, health authorities, news and social media etc and blocking the submission of scientific papers by those who had previously enjoyed a long and respected career.

The full details are attached here in the petition, too many to cover.

 

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I don't think everyone shares such conviction to the sales figures
Lawyers will do what lawyers do. As to the share price, a pandemic is (unsurprisingly) a great time to sell vaccines and other effective drugs. Once almost everyone has had the doses there'll inevitably be a drop in sales. That's one big reason for governments funding the initial development and manufacturing (though that's also important because of the risk of failure).
 
Lawyers will do what lawyers do. As to the share price, a pandemic is (unsurprisingly) a great time to sell vaccines and other effective drugs. Once almost everyone has had the doses there'll inevitably be a drop in sales. That's one big reason for governments funding the initial development and manufacturing (though that's also important because of the risk of failure).
Birx, the coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force under former President Donald Trump, said faith that the vaccines created a wall of protection was misplaced – and she knew it.

“I knew these vaccines were not going to protect against infection,”

n.b We also know that the vaccine trials never looked at prevention of transmission, serious illness/hospitalization and death and that trials were carried out during social distancing and mask wearing and that those who had covid19 symptoms within 7 days of second dose were removed from trial results. Yet they were mandated, coerced and jobs lost by those that didn't feel they needed them given they were never intended for those under 50 years of age, plus most under the age of 50 had a 99% chance of survival even if you were one of the small percentage of people that actually caught the virus.

 
How many do you know that have never had covid? I literally only know one person.
The point I am making is, only a small percentage of people ever caught the virus during each variant in 2020. Of those that did, most age groups would not show symptoms or have only mild symptoms etc The average age of death from covid is 83yrs of age.

The attached picture shows the proportion of people catching the virus based on official ONS data.
 

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The point I am making is, only a small percentage of people ever caught the virus during each variant in 2020.
Almost nobody was offered a vaccine in 2020. I suspect the Kent/alpha variant at the end of 2020 made quite a difference to how many people were infected. (How many people had been infected was an issue of controversy, with some arguing that it had been underestimated significantly. I tend to agree that the ONS infection survey is pretty convincing that rates were pretty low, somewhere around 2-3% at any time.)
 
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