Covid-19 response

[Bruce Stephens]

"The coronavirus will no longer be circulating in Britain by midsummer, according to the government's departing vaccine taskforce chief"

Sadly, he was mistaken. I don't remember exactly the timeline, but I seem to remember Israel had done a deal with Pfizer and vaccinated their population and seen a dramatic fall in infections, so I think it wasn't a completely crazy prediction. The others (that the UK will have a population protected from COVID by midsummer, etc.) seem largely correct.

I seem to remember a variety of lockdown sceptics proclaiming that (during the summer of 2020) we didn't need to worry about a second wave because many more people had recovered from infection than was admitted.

People were talking about it as if it was going to end the pandemic,

It has, kind of. Infection rates are (I think) increasing now, but because of immunity (largely by vaccination) we don't care much. (Indeed, children are encouraged to keep going to school while possibly infected.) I think the UK stopped most surveillance (including of wastewater, which seems like a dumb decision) so it seems hard to know, though I believe the ONS survey is to restart in a more limited form.

 

[snowball12]

I had Covid for the first time in August 2023. It's still out there

 

[Amity Island]

Sadly, he was mistaken.

Mistaken for claiming the virus would be gone by summer 2021? Like all those other mistakes made throughout the pandemic. It's not a mistake, it's a flagrant false claim, particularly when it comes from an expert. Viruses remain for thousands if not millions of years.

Yes, disease severity may reduce, but the actual virus will still be around, for potentially thousands of years.

This is what nobody seems to grasp. The virus is NOT the disease. For example, many believe diabetes is triggered by a virus. When have we ever confused (grouped together) a virus and diabetes? We don't call the virus diabetes and we don't call diabetes a virus. For covid the sarscov2 virus got grouped together with the disease covid19 by the NHS, global experts, doctors, professors, nurses, you name it. Handy for telling virus carriers (via positive test) without symptoms they have covid19 and record they are a covid "case", when they don't actually have a case of anything. It was just a tiny little, innocent "mistake" of course.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Viruses remain for thousands if not millions of years.

Often, but it's not universally true. We no longer worry about the original SARS or MERS. Or Smallpox. Or (wild type) Poliovirus 2.

 

[Amity Island]

Often, but it's not universally true. We no longer worry about the original SARS or MERS. Or Smallpox. Or (wild type) Poliovirus 2.

To say (publicly) the virus will no longer be circulating by summer certainly isn't true. It would be like saying volcanoes will no longer be erupting by summer or that waves will stop crashing on the beach after summer. This is nature.

 

[Dragonheart]

You are partly correct. The terminology is used in a sloppy way. That doesn’t mean having a virus in your body without an apparent disease is of no consequence though. A virus infecting your body (such as measured in a test) doesn’t need to become a disease (the symptoms of covid-19) to be transmitted to another person who may suffer disease, disablement or death even if the host didn’t.

A virus is a bundle of DNA/RNA nucleic acids

Infection is the invasion and multiplication of microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, and parasites that are not normally present within the body. An infection may cause no symptoms and be subclinical, or it may cause symptoms and be clinically apparent.

Disease is the illness or sickness characterized by specific signs and symptoms. It occurs if the virus replicates sufficiently to damage essential cells directly, to cause the release of toxic substances from infected tissues, to damage cellular genes or to damage organ function indirectly as a result of the host immune response to the presence of virus antigens

Virulence refers to the likelihood of disease that would be caused by that virus

Contagiousness or transmissibility is the ability to spread from one to another.



Please note the ability to cause disease or the presence of a disease is different to the transmission of the virus. eg as in the following. See the following from Medical Microbiology- viral pathogenesis
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK8149/ (bold is mine)

[Less severe] strains do not cause severe disease or death, their replication and transmission are not impaired by an incapacitated host.

Most viral infections are subclinical, ……….These inapparent infections have great epidemiologic importance: they constitute major sources for dissemination of virus through the population, ………

 

[Dragonheart]

To say (publicly) the virus will no longer be circulating by summer certainly isn't true. It would be like saying volcanoes will no longer be erupting by summer or that waves will stop crashing on the beach after summer. This is nature.

It was a wrong/incorrect prediction. A mistake in that sense.

Doesn’t mean the person didn’t have reasonable grounds to believe that prediction would be correct at the time it was made. Simply turning out to be wrong doesn’t mean it was a lie or a pipe dream.

 

[Amity Island]

At the covid inquiry, Professor Dame Jenny Harries, who now heads up the U.K. Health Security Agency, said the evidence that coverings reduced transmission is “uncertain” because it is difficult to separate their effect from other Covid curbs. n.b I hope she doesn't include the "eat out to help scheme" as a "curb".

She also told the U.K.’s Covid Inquiry that Government advice on how to make a mask using two pieces of cloth was “ineffective”. n.b Like a t-shirt for example? - see link below for government advice on how you should make one?

Interesting that the Government as part of their fight against the virus never made masks freely available to the public, nor provided bio hazard bins to dispose of them.

No proof face masks ever worked against Covid, claims UKHSA boss

Dame Jenny Harries, who now heads up the UK Health Security Agency, said that the evidence that face coverings reduce the spread of viruses is 'uncertain'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Below government advice on how to help reduce the spread of the virus by using an old t-shirt.

Coronavirus: Government publishes guidance on how to make face coverings using old T-shirts

The government has issued instructions for making face masks at home, using elastic bands and cotton fabric or an old T-shirt.

news.sky.com

They [masks] do not need to be worn outdoors, or while exercising, in schools, or in workplaces such as offices and retail, according to the DoH. n.b that sensible guidance didn't last long.

 

[Dragonheart]

At the covid inquiry, Professor Dame Jenny Harries, who now heads up the U.K. Health Security Agency, said the evidence that coverings reduced transmission is “uncertain” because it is difficult to separate their effect from other Covid curbs. n.b I hope she doesn't include the "eat out to help scheme" as a "curb".

She also told the U.K.’s Covid Inquiry that Government advice on how to make a mask using two pieces of cloth was “ineffective”. n.b Like a t-shirt for example? - see link below for government advice on how you should make one?

Interesting that the Government as part of their fight against the virus never made masks freely available to the public, nor provided bio hazard bins to dispose of them.

No proof face masks ever worked against Covid, claims UKHSA boss

Dame Jenny Harries, who now heads up the UK Health Security Agency, said that the evidence that face coverings reduce the spread of viruses is 'uncertain'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Below government advice on how to help reduce the spread of the virus by using an old t-shirt.

Coronavirus: Government publishes guidance on how to make face coverings using old T-shirts

The government has issued instructions for making face masks at home, using elastic bands and cotton fabric or an old T-shirt.

news.sky.com

They [masks] do not need to be worn outdoors, or while exercising, in schools, or in workplaces such as offices and retail, according to the DoH. n.b that sensible guidance didn't last long.

I don’t hold much faith in her personally but I agree in any situation just simple observation makes it hard to differentiate what intervention has what effect. That’s what properly designed studies are for.

Using a bit of fabric was always going to be less than optimal but probably better than nothing at all, if only to reduce the amount and distance the largest particles travelled. A decent well fitting, suitable material one is required to actually have reliable success eg N95 standard. They weren’t recommended because a) they were fixated on fomites alone for so long ignoring aerosol transmission for some unfathomable reason and b) they didn’t have enough for medical staff let alone the public.

The advice not to wear them in offices and school yet to wear them in enclosed indoor spaces was ridiculously contradictory and was their pathetic attempt to cover all bases, the medical basis for wearing them and the political backlash against wearing them, as if only strangers could pass the virus as opposed to people known to you.

I said I thought many of their decisions and rationalisations were plain daft too. Certainly not based on the consensus of best available science at that point in time they were made.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

I said I thought many of their decisions and rationalisations were plain daft too. Certainly not based on the consensus of best available science at that point in time they were made.

There still seems widespread advice that handwashing is important. Important as a general public health matter (in particular for norovirus, of course), but just not (as far as we know) for this virus.

 

[Dragonheart]

There still seems widespread advice that handwashing is important. Important as a general public health matter (in particular for norovirus, of course), but just not (as far as we know) for this virus.

Well I’m sure it’s generally a good idea for all sorts of virus and in any health situation.

However the bizarre fixation that this was enough on its own and the very long time it took to acknowledge aerosols were even a possibility let alone confirmed is simply beyond my comprehension. Trouble is for many people the first message they hear sticks. And those were wash hands and masks not required. It almost doesn’t matter what you demonstrate after that, that’s what they’ll believe.

 

[Amity Island]

However the bizarre fixation that this was enough on its own and the very long time it took to acknowledge aerosols were even a possibility let alone confirmed is simply beyond my comprehension.

Great point, one that passed me by. Another one of those incomprehensible "mistakes".

 

[Amity Island]

What were the most ludicrous covid responses during the pandemic and what was more ludicrous, the rule or the fact that people followed them?

The restaurant rule where you only had to wear a mask whilst walking to and from your table.

Having a special shopping time for the elderly and most vulnerable to go shopping (mix) with most at risk, the nhs workers.

The ban on those with a Bolton postcode from travelling to Scotland.

The US basketball team which banned a player from the team because he was unvaccinated, was later invited back into the team as one by one the vaccinated players got covid.

The "does a scotch egg constitute a substantial meal" fiasco.

Telling passengers on the avanti coast train from Carlisle to move seats when they crossed the Scottish border as the distancing rules were different.

Cutting the bottom off classroom doors for ventilation when carehomes were screwing shut residents windows so they couldn't communicate with their loved ones.

Closing the playgrounds when there was no evidence kids would pass it on.

In a stunning admission sure to enrage Melbourne families, Victoria's Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton admitted on Wednesday the parks were banned for the last month to get at parents.

The real reason Victoria's health boss closed playgrounds

The truth is finally out. Playgrounds were shut down to punish the parents, not because kids were spreading Covid.

www.dailymail.co.uk

Lest not forget.

These were not mistakes, a mistake is something you never intended to do, if you intend to do something then it isn't a mistake.

 

[Dragonheart]

What were the most ludicrous covid responses

I’ll add (not exhaustive by any means)

The assumption or belief that kids can’t catch or pass on the virus

the wilful ignoring of the possibility of airborne transmission for so long publicly and the harm that caused long term

the ongoing lack of better fresh air ventilation requirements for public buildings such as schools and hospitals as well better HSE rules for businesses on the subject (beneficial for all winter illnesses, absence and sickness rates with their association financial costs - not just covid)

That one set of indoor circumstances was risky (eg buses even with frequently opening doors) yet classrooms and offices were deemed safe with their lack of decent ventilation

eat out to help out

the section of society that refuse to test, wear masks or isolate when they were/are symptomatic or obviously exposed to a sick/positive person, thereby knowingly continuing the spread. Including the “I’ll soldier on cos I’m indispensable and a hero” mentality always shown with colds and flu, not just the wilful deniers or the plain callous to the effect on others brigade

that kids are actively encouraged to go to school with covid now and strongly discouraged from testing even with symptoms.

that long covid and organ damage is still being largely ignored as an issue arising from the pandemic and those suffering are being labelled malingerers

that optional vaccinations are not available (at cost/privately) for those not on the nhs schedule for those that want them. Those numbers are massively less than were being produced earlier in the pandemic so the capability to produce them must be there

 

[Amity Island]

The assumption or belief that kids can’t catch or pass on the virus

Missed that one, do you have any back stories on that?

the wilful ignoring of the possibility of airborne transmission for so long publicly and the harm that caused long term

the ongoing lack of better fresh air ventilation requirements for public buildings such as schools and hospitals as well better HSE rules for businesses on the subject (beneficial for all winter illnesses, absence and sickness rates with their association financial costs - not just covid)

That one set of indoor circumstances was risky (eg buses even with frequently opening doors) yet classrooms and offices were deemed safe with their lack of decent ventilation

eat out to help out

the section of society that refuse to test, wear masks or isolate when they were/are symptomatic or obviously exposed to a sick/positive person, thereby knowingly continuing the spread. Including the “I’ll soldier on cos I’m indispensable and a hero” mentality always shown with colds and flu, not just the wilful deniers or the plain callous to the effect on others brigade

that kids are actively encouraged to go to school with covid now and strongly discouraged from testing even with symptoms.

that long covid and organ damage is still being largely ignored as an issue arising from the pandemic and those suffering are being labelled malingerers

that optional vaccinations are not available (at cost/privately) for those not on the nhs schedule for those that want them. Those numbers are massively less than were being produced earlier in the pandemic so the capability to produce them must be there

The ventilation thing is clearly a benefit, yet I've not heard of any improvements made during covid or going forward to protect in the event of future viruses. I agree totally about not going out if you have symptoms (hence why I was against locking in the well people), although the "solider on" has certainly reduced nowadays.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

that optional vaccinations are not available (at cost/privately) for those not on the nhs schedule for those that want them.

I think that's just because they haven't got around to changing the relevant regulations. What's odder is that they apparently bought enough doses to do the same as last year (so everyone over 50 plus the special groups) so we have lots of spare doses. Which they're now planning to discard.

 

[Dragonheart]

Missed that one, do you have any back stories on that?

there was no evidence kids would pass it on.

You just did it yourself

although the "solider on" has certainly reduced nowadays.

you think? I see no signs of it changing and the schools are more determined than ever sick kids attend to make up for the 2 terms they were closed 3 yrs ago

 

[Amity Island]

You just did it yourself

I've never suggested kids don't get covid or pass it on. I said regarding the outdoor playgrounds, there was no evidence closing them was based on any evidence.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

I said regarding the outdoor playgrounds, there was no evidence closing them was based on any evidence.

I think it was logical the first time around (when we were worried about fomite transmission and councils were worried they wouldn't be able to clean the playground equipment). Also if you're not going to let adults sit on park benches (because when they do that they're not exercising) playgrounds are a bit of a problem.

Not so much later, though. (But then they continued to worry about cleaning surfaces, washing hands, etc., so maybe opening playgrounds would have involved more of a general change than they were willing to make. I think they should have explained that actually surfaces weren't such a problem for this virus (so cafes and similar should continue to clean surfaces, but on general public health terms and not particularly for this virus) but politicians really don't like to be seen to change their views.)

 

[Amity Island]

I think it was logical the first time around (when we were worried about fomite transmission and councils were worried they wouldn't be able to clean the playground equipment). Also if you're not going to let adults sit on park benches (because when they do that they're not exercising) playgrounds are a bit of a problem.

Not so much later, though. (But then they continued to worry about cleaning surfaces, washing hands, etc., so maybe opening playgrounds would have involved more of a general change than they were willing to make. I think they should have explained that actually surfaces weren't such a problem for this virus (so cafes and similar should continue to clean surfaces, but on general public health terms and not particularly for this virus) but politicians really don't like to be seen to change their views.)

I think the reason why we saw no transmission at the huge beach gatherings over summer was in my reckoning because of the sun. The sun supplies plenty of u.v outside and drives vitamin d supply and fresh air disperses particles. I have a theory that this is what drives outbreaks of cold and flu over every winter without fail. During winter the days are shorter (less hours of sun) and less intense (softer and lower in the sky). Add less hours of light, more time spent in artificially lit buildings.

So based on these factors, being outside in the sun (u.v and vit D), fresh air, a virus would be a very low risk.