Austria planning mandatory vaccination for all, with prison for non-compliance.

[Bruce Stephens]

I am not saying don't get vaccinated, I am saying the argument for @travellor "No vaccination, no admittance to hospital" isn't based on science.

The idea of denying treatment isn't going to fly. We still treat people who're smokers, or who ride horses, climb mountains, etc., each of which increase some health risks.

I'm just suggesting that if you're a government, trying to get people to get vaccinated is rational. Wherever they start off, vaccination's going to make them less likely to get acutely ill, and (likely just as important if not more), less likely to get long term effects from infection.

Similarly, if you're offering health insurance (for example in the US) it's rational to encourage (charge less for) people who're vaccinated for the same reasons.

And in both cases there's a significant risk in trying to give equivalence to "natural infection" and vaccination, in that people might be encouraged to get infected, which is something you definitely don't want. (I guess health insurers might not care so much, but governments (who might end up paying for care for long term sickness) should.) This was one argument against our government's first moonshot idea of immunity certificates from mass antibody testing.

@Bruce Stephens would you agree that taking any drug (be that insulin or anything else) must surely be based on need? or do we start taking prescription drugs "just in case" for this or that?

Vaccines are exactly in that category, aren't they? We want healthy people to take them, just in case (which is why the safety standards have to be so high). Similarly, I take a statin each day, even though I've never had any symptoms (that I'm aware of): it's a drug I take just in case.

 

[mikeyB]

Well, whatever Austria are doing (which is not the police sending people to prison, merely sending them home) there are huge queues forming at vaccination centres. They are getting vaccinated because essentially they are locked down if they aren’t. It seems that getting locked down in your home is a sight more persuasive than avoiding dying.

Yes, you need to carry your vaccine certificate - I do, it’s on my phone NHS App. So I can’t help but carry it around.

 

[mikeyB]

As an addendum, just to keep Amity Island happy, proof of previous infection also keeps you free In Austria.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

And, when I say don't need, I am talking about anyone who has already had the virus and those in the much younger categories and this is why the JCVI advised that the benefits didn't outweigh the risks for youngsters (athough the government went ahead anyway).

We seem to be an outlier in that, though. While it's accepted that there's this risk, it doesn't seem to be stopping many other countries from vaccinating children. The infection can also cause heart inflammation. The judgement seems to be (in other countries) that the risks of infection are larger than the risks of vaccination.

It's likely moot, however. We've chosen to allow the majority of children to be infected. I guess we'll see whether they're harmed relative to vaccinated ones from elsewhere in the (wealthy) world.

 

[Deleted member 21371]

Yes, @Bruce Stephens I think we can agree on my point that people can't be denied treatment (although that is what has happened in Singapore for any unvaxxed with covid19) just because they haven't taken something they don't need. And, when I say don't need, I am talking about anyone who has already had the virus and those in the much younger categories and this is why the JCVI advised that the benefits didn't outweigh the risks for youngsters (athough the government went ahead anyway).

The government made a change to their advice last week regarding the proximity of taking the vaccines and prior infection due to risk of side effects of heart problems.

Singapore will stop covering the medical bills of unvaccinated COVID-19 patients

Singapore's government will stop covering the cost of COVID-19 treatment for those who are "unvaccinated by choice" next month, citing the strain they are placing on its health care system.

www.npr.org

If they know they don't "need" vaccines, why do they expect to need treatment?
As you say, Singapore has decided to let people have that choice, and can then stand by their decision, as they aren't picking up the tab for anyone that later needs hospitalising because of their own free choice.

 

[Deleted member 21371]

It's not a choice unless it is a "free" choice and I mean absolutely free.

Free of coercion, be that threat of losing your livelihood, denied hospital treatment, being ostracised by friends and/family, being unable to go on holiday abroad, not being able to go into venues and certainly not for a donut, free meal or gift voucher.

Given just about everyone I know who has had the vaccines, took it for just about every other reason except for their health, says everything. Most i'd say took for either a holiday abroad or for social activities etc.

Ah, you mean free of any consequences of your choice?
Isn't that true anarchy?
Whereas every single thing you have listed above is a social activity, undertaken by people who have decided to have vaccinations, and have decided which social group they want to be in, and which rules apply to that group?
Which is a democracy.

That's often the problem with wanting to dip in and out, and just thinking it's fair to only observe the only the rules you think are favourable to you alone.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Given just about everyone I know who has had the vaccines, took it for just about every other reason except for their health, says everything.

You don't know any old people, or people aware of the data? Just look at the lead causes of death,

Monthly mortality analysis, England and Wales - Office for National Statistics

Provisional death registration data for England and Wales, broken down by sex, age and country. Includes deaths due to coronavirus (COVID-19) and leading causes of death.

www.ons.gov.uk

(Most people I know had the vaccine because of their health, but also because they want this to come to an end. And what's a better way for a pandemic to end than effective vaccines? How amazing is it that for this one, we got vaccines within a year of the thing starting? How sad is it that our problems are that we can't get enough doses quickly enough to people who desperately want and need them, and that so many people in places where there are plenty of doses won't take them?)

 

[Deleted member 21371]

I'm not talking about tribes, anarchy or democracy.

I'm talking about taking medicines. Your view of "No vaccination, no admittance to hospital" isn't based on anything scientific. By that stance, anyone vaccinated with covid19 would be free to go into hosptial (which at the moment is the majority) and able to infect other patients, but anyone without covid19 with a good immune system innate or acquired immunity would be banned.

No one has rioted in Singapore over it, it seems to be a good working plan.
I'm sure it would work as well here.
And if you survive, as you say, it cures the unvaccinated issue one way or another.

 

[Inka]

I took the vaccines for health reasons - my own health, yes, but also to protect more vulnerable members of my family. I also took the vaccines because I want this pandemic to end sooner rather than later. I don’t know anyone who had the vaccine to go on holiday, etc. Yes, some noted that as a benefit, but it wasn’t the primary motivation for them to be vaccinated.

I don’t think vaccination should be compulsory but I admit that I don’t understand why some people are refusing to be vaccinated. Obviously, some have medical reasons, but I’m talking about those who don’t. I would never have expected this level of suspicion about the vaccines. Sometimes I imagine looking back at a historical pandemic and wondering what I’d think if I read that they had a vaccine but some people refused it.

 

[Deleted member 21371]

Do we then extend this policy to those who "refuse" to stop smoking? those who "refuse" to stop using their mobile phones whilst driving? what about criminals, they could harm others too?

Clearly what we need is a social credit system in place.

As per the Chinese system?
Overall, I would suggest democracy is better.

 

[Deleted member 21371]

I took the vaccines for health reasons - my own health, yes, but also to protect more vulnerable members of my family. I also took the vaccines because I want this pandemic to end sooner rather than later. I don’t know anyone who had the vaccine to go on holiday, etc. Yes, some noted that as a benefit, but it wasn’t the primary motivation for them to be vaccinated.

I don’t think vaccination should be compulsory but I admit that I don’t understand why some people are refusing to be vaccinated. Obviously, some have medical reasons, but I’m talking about those who don’t. I would never have expected this level of suspicion about the vaccines. Sometimes I imagine looking back at a historical pandemic and wondering what I’d think if I read that they had a vaccine but some people refused it.

Interestingly, I was talking to the guy in front of me in the queue for my booster at the weekend.
Two of his employees weren't vaccinated, he gave them a choice of getting it, or letting them go.
One got vaccinated, one left.
Why should he risk employing someone who could potentially infect him, or infect his customers, or workmates.

 

[Inka]

Hi Inka,

I don't know either, but it could be something as simple as the lack of aspiration (to avoid injecting into the blood stream) which seems a valid concern from what Dr John Campbell was saying in his video. It could be we don't know the full ingredients in the vaccines, not just those listed. Who knows.

Sadly, I think many people are automatically suspicious for no real reason @Amity Island The concerns you’ve mentioned are actual concerns which can be addressed, but the anti-vaxxers I see on social media largely believe outlandish claims or are just motivated by a vague suspicion. They should be free to decide, but how can they make an informed choice if they can’t articulate genuine concerns or are motivated by myths or unfounded fears?

All this crap about 5G, mysterious vaccine ingredients, Bill Gates and whatever makes me weep.

 

[Deleted member 21371]

There's science at work again! sacking people that may have natural immunity.

So?
Do other people owe you a living?
Perfectly free choice.
Respect the terms of the job, or leave.

My first job could have put me anywhere in the world.
I had everything in the book.
Cholera
Diphtheria
Hep A
Hep B
Meningococcal meningitis
MMR
Tetanus
Typhoid
Yellow Fever

Some for my protection, some to stop the spread if I actually caught one of them, some as a condition of travel into the country.
Again, it was either have them, or leave.
I also wasn't going to have a vague hope my immune system would be better at the job than the vaccinations either.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

We don't actually know what people have died from, because they include every death (with a positive test within 28 days) regardless of what they actually died from, not just "with" a positive test.

Nonsense. That's one measure. Another is looking at cause of death on death certificates. And the two match up pretty well. Not perfectly, but close enough that we can be pretty confident about the overall figures.

 

[Deleted member 21371]

How is Jab or no Job "free" choice? It's a choice and that's it.

It's a consequence of a choice you, personally, choose to make.

If you expect to have unlimited personal choices, with no regard to the consequences you cause, both to yourself and to others, can you explain how that would work across society?
Because at the moment, you seem to say you don't want a vaccination, as you "may" cope with your own immune system, but if you don't cope you still want a bed in ICU, even if you infect your boss, your colleagues, and your customers, and then return to work after that? Sick pay while in hospital as well?

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Do we then extend this policy to those who "refuse" to stop smoking?

We (in the UK) can't do that. I presume smokers pay more for health insurance in the US, just as they do in this country for travel health insurance. I'd expect that to extend to people who choose not to be vaccinated against this virus.

Closest I could imagine the UK to doing that would be some kind of tax change. Maybe a (presumably time limited) NI bump for people who decline vaccination. (I don't think it's likely, but I don't think it would be crazy: people refusing this vaccine are (statistically) increasing costs for everyone. And (unlike smokers) they aren't paying more tax in other ways. That's one nice property of some of the European mandates: you can either take the (free) vaccination, or you can pay to have a test each time you go to a restaurant, etc.)

 

[Deleted member 21371]

We (in the UK) can't do that. I presume smokers pay more for health insurance in the US, just as they do in this country for travel health insurance. I'd expect that to extend to people who choose not to be vaccinated against this virus.

Closest I could imagine the UK to doing that would be some kind of tax change. Maybe a (presumably time limited) NI bump for people who decline vaccination. (I don't think it's likely, but I don't think it would be crazy: people refusing this vaccine are (statistically) increasing costs for everyone. And (unlike smokers) they aren't paying more tax in other ways. That's one nice property of some of the European mandates: you can either take the (free) vaccination, or you can pay to have a test each time you go to a restaurant, etc.)

The NHS do recover costs from insurers after some RTA's. The cap is around £55,000, to cover costs from the ambulance to in patient treatment.
So, the wedge is already in place for two tier treatment.
As you say, a variable NI, but probably more likely a partial privatisation of the NHS, with a basic NHS for all, and an insurance backed upgrade would be another option if the conservatives keep power for long enough.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Bruce, it's a rhetorical question. 🙂 I know that. just making a point that where a policy like that could be taken?

I think it's conceivable we'll have broader mandates, like all government employees must be vaccinated. (Similar to the US one.) Maybe also (again, following the US) large employers might have the same mandate.

Doesn't feel likely to me. I suspect we'll drift on allowing large numbers to be infected and hope that it stabilises at some tolerable level without healthcare collapsing. I'm not confident that that's a bad choice. Having vaccination (mostly) voluntary has worked well for us. (And I was doubtful about the fast antigen tests (and I'm still doubtful about our policies for using them), but overall they're likely effective for what people claimed, and I was probably wrong.)

 

[Deleted member 21371]

I think it's conceivable we'll have broader mandates, like all government employees must be vaccinated. (Similar to the US one.) Maybe also (again, following the US) large employers might have the same mandate.

Doesn't feel likely to me. I suspect we'll drift on allowing large numbers to be infected and hope that it stabilises at some tolerable level without healthcare collapsing. I'm not confident that that's a bad choice. Having vaccination (mostly) voluntary has worked well for us. (And I was doubtful about the fast antigen tests (and I'm still doubtful about our policies for using them), but overall they're likely effective for what people claimed, and I was probably wrong.)

We already have mandates for employees being vaccinated.
Care home employees, NHS front line staff, several well known private companies.
All acceptable to the public.
I believe it'll roll out, but, as the German Health minister said today, most Germans will be "vaccinated, cured or dead" from Covid-19 in a few months,
All we as a country need to do is ensure the hospitals can keep the load to an acceptable level until that time.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

I believe it'll roll out, but, as the German Health minister said today, most Germans will be "vaccinated, cured or dead" from Covid-19 in a few months,
All we as a country need to do is ensure the hospitals can keep the load to an acceptable level until that time.

That seems likely, yes. I'm sad for the people who will die from this largely preventable (in wealthy countries) infectious disease.

I'm more worried that we'll be left with significant numbers of people with permanent disability, but maybe it won't be as bad as I fear. It doesn't seem impossible that most of these long covid things will be temporary, so we'll just end up with small numbers of people with severe damage.