Boris Johnson announces new 4-week England lockdown November 5 to December 2

[Eddy Edson]

When you talk of hard lockdown, are you talking shutting schools, closing hospitals, all shops, all travel?

From what I've seen and from the experience in eg Victoria and NZ, what works seems to be making schools on-line as much as possible, stopping elective surgery, stopping non-essential retail, restricting movement very tightly, work from home unless exempt for whatever reason, limit outdoors time very tightly, restrict household mixing very tightly, curfews.

Obviously, backed up by consistent, constant, clear & transparent messaging, including about exit strategy, financial support and effective compliance enforcement.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

From what I've seen and from the experience in eg Victoria and NZ, what works seems to be making schools on-line as much as possible, stopping elective surgery, stopping non-essential retail, restricting movement very tightly, work from home unless exempt for whatever reason, limit outdoors time very tightly, restrict household mixing very tightly, curfews.

I'm a bit surprised we're not doing something with schools (especially for older children). Maybe encourage mask wearing, or reduce class sizes by a half and alternate which half of pupils attend in person and which watch online. (They'd need to reverse their stupid laptop reduction, obviously.)

Bit surprised about outdoors time: I thought that was thought not to make much difference so you may as well allow lots of it?

 

[Eddy Edson]

Bit surprised about outdoors time: I thought that was thought not to make much difference so you may as well allow lots of it?

In Vic, I actually think a lot of it was to simplify compliance enforcement for the cops. Vic's approach to things was "brutal simplicity" with a lot of enforcement, along with financial support and constant messaging. Not necessarily optimal, but it worked for them - zero new infections detected in the last few days, opening up on schedule.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

In Vic, I actually think a lot of it was to simplify compliance enforcement for the cops. Vic's approach to things was "brutal simplicity" with a lot of enforcement, along with financial support and constant messaging. Not necessarily optimal, but it worked for them - zero new infections detected in the last few days, opening up on schedule.

OK, that would be logical. I get the sense that in England (well, the UK generally) we're not likely to go that far. (Offering financial support seems to be weirdly not something the government wants to do. I still think that's stupid: when you've got only 10%/20% of people isolating who you'd like to isolate, offering them money and other support (as happens in a bunch of countries) seems like an obvious thing to try, and yet £500 for two weeks for some people seems the limit of our ambition.)

 

[Eddy Edson]

OK, that would be logical. I get the sense that in England (well, the UK generally) we're not likely to go that far. (Offering financial support seems to be weirdly not something the government wants to do. I still think that's stupid: when you've got only 10%/20% of people isolating who you'd like to isolate, offering them money and other support (as happens in a bunch of countries) seems like an obvious thing to try, and yet £500 for two weeks for some people seems the limit of our ambition.)

An interesting thing is the way the Vic govt managed to keep it's approval levels above 60% though all this heavy-handed lockdown period, despite the fact that it was govt failures which led to it being necessary & in the face of constant attacks from the Murdoch press and Trump-humper types in the state opposition and federal govenrment.

People recongised that the govt screwed up but they also recognised that the govt was doing everything it could to fix it, and they liked the simple message of getting infection rates as low as possible, so hopefully you wouldn't need to do it again.

Very much a wartime-like context, I think. If you're looking for "Churchillian", that's the way to do it.

 

[Eddy Edson]

Eddy,

What is the exit strategy over there?

Differs by state. Most of Oz there's nothing particularly to exit from - no virus, hardly any restrictions apart from the borders - and Vic is just about there too. More generally, keep TTI capability & public health in general strong; to deal with any possible flare-ups, and try to work out how to open borders at some point.

 

[atoll]

We could immediately reduce the incidence of infection at zero cost to the tax payer overnight by mandating mask wearing at all times outside as effective social distancing seems impossible to many.

Hand washing or hand sanitizing needs to be much more emphasized in the media now we are into winter as live virus survives much longer on surfaces in cold conditions with less UV from sunlight to kill virus deposits.

awareness could be built with something similar to the excellent TV campaign the NHS had a few years ago on Salmonella surface contamination.

Mask technology also needs to be re-thought or re-invented using perhaps low power UV light to sterilize the air you breath in and out,rather than filter the air .

The whole psychology of isolation if infected and preventative quarantine needs to be re-evaluated .
possibly 2 weeks at a hotel or spa ,that at the moment are being paid to stay closed by the government would encourage more to isolate effectively!

edit interesting link to uv masks

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www.indiegogo.com

 

[mikeydt1]

if they won't shut the borders then they are just going to keep adding fuel to the fuel just a pointless affair.

 

[Eddy Edson]

if they won't shut the borders then they are just going to keep adding fuel to the fuel just a pointless affair.

Pretty much

 

[mikeyB]

The big problem the UK has compared to other countries is the density of population. France has a similar population, but spread over a an enormously bigger area. Australia is odd because just about everybody lives round the edge. In England, the centres of population are much closer together - an hour's drive. In Scotland it's the central belt that accounts for 85% of the population. Wales is like Australia, with most folk living round the edge.

So in Scotland, you could more or less stop the virus by locking down the central belt. You can't do that in England, any more than you could do it in Germany. The big difference is that in Scotland and Germany there is an effective track and trace system in place. There is not such a system in England.

Because of all this, the only tactic as seen by the government is a national lockdown. What they cannot seem to see, or admit, is that there won't be an effective tracking system in place after the lockdown, so a full lockdown will have no effect on the distribution of the virus. And nobody yet has used the simplest way of looking for a hotspot of infection. That's testing the **** in the sewers. If there is COVID-19 in the poo, you have a hotspot. If there is, lock down the locale. If there isn't, no worries. Even then, a tracing system needs to be in place. If the government doesn't get that sorted, COVID-19 will be with us forever.

That, in my opinion, is how we will end up. So far, only around 1% of the population has been infected. Our mobile hairdresser had to postpone an appointment because her son had been sent home from school with symptoms of Covid, and tested positive. While he spent his time playing on his PS4 his two parents and three siblings tested negative throughout. This virus is less infectious than a common cold, and far less infectious than flu. It's complete insanity to look for a vaccine, and equally try to eliminate the virus totally.

Do we need a full lockdown? No, of course we don't. If you really are concerned about infection, don't mix in close groups - concerts, football and such. Do we need to stop mixing with close symptom free relatives and get back to hugging? No, of course we don't. It's completely OTT. Do we need to panic the population? Yes, to take our minds off the looming insanity of a no-deal Brexit.

Do you want a normal Christmas? Well, if your family is symptom free, and has been for a fortnight, then behave as normal. You won't get arrested. Just don't make any great party noise. Just quietly hug and kiss your loved ones.

 

[Eddy Edson]

The big problem the UK has compared to other countries is the density of population. France has a similar population, but spread over a an enormously bigger area. Australia is odd because just about everybody lives round the edge. In England, the centres of population are much closer together - an hour's drive. In Scotland it's the central belt that accounts for 85% of the population. Wales is like Australia, with most folk living round the edge.

So in Scotland, you could more or less stop the virus by locking down the central belt. You can't do that in England, any more than you could do it in Germany. The big difference is that in Scotland and Germany there is an effective track and trace system in place. There is not such a system in England.

Because of all this, the only tactic as seen by the government is a national lockdown. What they cannot seem to see, or admit, is that there won't be an effective tracking system in place after the lockdown, so a full lockdown will have no effect on the distribution of the virus. And nobody yet has used the simplest way of looking for a hotspot of infection. That's testing the **** in the sewers. If there is COVID-19 in the poo, you have a hotspot. If there is, lock down the locale. If there isn't, no worries. Even then, a tracing system needs to be in place. If the government doesn't get that sorted, COVID-19 will be with us forever.

That, in my opinion, is how we will end up. So far, only around 1% of the population has been infected. Our mobile hairdresser had to postpone an appointment because her son had been sent home from school with symptoms of Covid, and tested positive. While he spent his time playing on his PS4 his two parents and three siblings tested negative throughout. This virus is less infectious than a common cold, and far less infectious than flu. It's complete insanity to look for a vaccine, and equally try to eliminate the virus totally.

Do we need a full lockdown? No, of course we don't. If you really are concerned about infection, don't mix in close groups - concerts, football and such. Do we need to stop mixing with close symptom free relatives and get back to hugging? No, of course we don't. It's completely OTT. Do we need to panic the population? Yes, to take our minds off the looming insanity of a no-deal Brexit.

Do you want a normal Christmas? Well, if your family is symptom free, and has been for a fortnight, then behave as normal. You won't get arrested. Just don't make any great party noise. Just quietly hug and kiss your loved ones.

Wastewater surveillance is apparently becoming a really useful tool in Oz:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1323032203492696064

Your Christmas scenario is fine unless cousin Timmy has gotten pre/asymptomatically infected at a Christmas party a couple of night before & superspreads to the family over lunch ... That would be a classic COVID-19 transmission scenario.

 

[mikeyB]

There's no such thing as a "classic" COVID-19 transmission scenario. It hasn't been around long enough. In any event, my hairdresser's experience suggests that it takes some effort to catch the bug. That must be the case given the percentage of the population infected.

 

[Eddy Edson]

There's no such thing as a "classic" COVID-19 transmission scenario. It hasn't been around long enough. In any event, my hairdresser's experience suggests that it takes some effort to catch the bug. That must be the case given the percentage of the population infected.

That's the dispersion factor thing - 80% of transmissions from 20% of infectious people or whatever. Most people don't transmit; some transmit a lot. If you're unlucky, cousin Timmy is a superspreader.

 

[Robin]

The U.k. is doing sewage tests, it was rolled out in October, with a great fanfare from the government, but when you look further down the piece, it’s only currently covering 22% of the population. Which isn’t a great help if that’s not where your hotspots are.
Also, the fact that they’re sharing the info with NHS Test and Trace means the results will get buried somewhere in the shambles.

Sewage signals early warning of coronavirus outbreaks

Government-led programme is providing an early warning of coronavirus outbreaks by monitoring sewage and sharing data with NHS Test & Trace

www.gov.uk

 

[Eddy Edson]

That's the dispersion factor thing - 80% of transmissions from 20% of infectious people or whatever. Most people don't transmit; some transmit a lot. If you're unlucky, cousin Timmy is a superspreader.

This from the Atlantic a couple of months ago was interesting on the dispersion factor: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

Overdispersion makes it harder for us to absorb lessons from the world, because it interferes with how we ordinarily think about cause and effect. For example, it means that events that result in spreading and non-spreading of the virus are asymmetric in their ability to inform us. Take the highly publicized case in Springfield, Missouri, in which two infected hairstylists, both of whom wore masks, continued to work with clients while symptomatic. It turns out that no apparent infections were found among the 139 exposed clients (67 were directly tested; the rest did not report getting sick). While there is a lot of evidence that masks are crucial in dampening transmission, that event alone wouldn’t tell us if masks work. In contrast, studying transmission, the rarer event, can be quite informative. Had those two hairstylists transmitted the virus to large numbers of people despite everyone wearing masks, it would be important evidence that, perhaps, masks aren’t useful in preventing super-spreading.

 

[Docb]

@mikeyB, virologist and SAGE member on the radio this am would disagree with you on the infectiousness. He was quite clear that it was more infectious than flu. Just illustrates one of the big things in this mess. If you can't agree common ground on the simple things, no chance of any agreement when it gets difficult.

 

[Ditto]

It's getting nearer. My friend's father-in-law died the other night and my brother-in-law's two sisters have it badly. Too close to home by half, dunno about pandemic.

 

[Bexlee]

I'm a bit surprised we're not doing something with schools (especially for older children). Maybe encourage mask wearing, or reduce class sizes by a half and alternate which half of pupils attend in person and which watch online. (They'd need to reverse their stupid laptop reduction, obviously.)

Bit surprised about outdoors time: I thought that was thought not to make much difference so you may as well allow lots of it?

My school is mask wearing - thought there would be uproar from the teenagers ......and there has been .......At grown ups who don’t take it seriously!The kids have been great to be fair to them.

 

[atoll]

article and animation ,of dispersion risks in closed spaces

A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three everyday scenarios, based on the safety measures used and the length of exposure

english.elpais.com

 

[mikeyB]

MikeyB,
Would that meet the definition of a pandemic?

1% of the population of the UK would be around 678,000, so yes, that's a pandemic.(It also covers the world.) That really is just 1% of the population, but it gives you a better picture of what is happening. And less than 1% of those infected end up dead. It's hardly a deadly virus, is it?

Even at the height of the first wave, Covid was in around 5th place in the list of causes of death. It's currently much lower than that. Folk are still dying of Alzheimer's, cancer and heart disease and all the other usual suspects.

Now all that is not an argument to relax vigilance, but it is an argument to stop worrying quite so much. This disease won't change our society, unfortunately, as the Black Death did back in the day. So many people died that it ended serfdom at a stroke, workers on the land became a paid mobile workforce. It completely changed society in Britain.

So why do we now have a four week lockdown? Because for sure, it won't eliminate the virus, any more than the first lockdown did.