There are many variables in your scenario, Radders - thank you for sharing it, btw.
Eg, how long does Apidra last for you? How did you arrive at your CarbF 1:10 at lunch time? How much does your CarbF change through the day? How do you know that your basal is stable at that time of the day? What is your ISF? Etc, etc.
One possible explanation for your scenario could be that that you haven't noticed your BG climb up by 3 mmol/L at 2-3 pm because you have been covering that rise by a larger-than-needed lunch bolus dose. Which means that if you increase your basal to cover for 2-3 pm climb (which means that you have to make the actual increase 1-2 hrs before the climb), you will be able to calculate your new CarbF for lunch bolus - which is likely smaller (like 1:11, 1:12, etc). So, you would not need to worry about a hypo, and you would be able to be more flexible about what you eat and when you eat it.
I would hhighly recommend reading the book, and discussing your situation further with your consultant.