For me, there is a much more compelling reason -- more compelling than the Fergusson Model -- for why the "lockdown/restictions" strategy was used in Britatin (and across the world).
A week or so before the first known case of covid19 in Wuhan, the UN made this statement:
Geneva, 26 November 2019 – On the eve of a year in which nations are due to strengthen their Paris climate pledges, a new UN Environment Programme (UNEP) report warns that unless global greenhouse gas emissions fall by 7.6 per cent each year between 2020 and 2030, the world will miss the opportunity to get on track towards the 1.5°C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
2020 is a critical year for climate action.
A 7% reduction in CO2 emissions is indeed the quoted level of CO2 reductions made in 2020 since all the travel and social restrictions were put into place.
This means we need to maintain the same decrease every year as if we were living in lockdown.
This is just my opinion of course, others may prefer to stick to the "long covid19" repsonse, but let's see how this all plays out over the next 10 years.....
On current unconditional pledges, the world is heading for a 3.2°C temperature rise Technologies and policy knowledge exist to cut emissions, but transformations must begin now G20 nations account for 78 per cent of all emissions, but 15 G20 members have not committed to a timeline for net-zero...
www.unenvironment.org