First college to ban unvaccinated students from living on-site

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Bruce Stephens said:
(Pfizer's name sucks, though: "Comirnaty"? Really? Moderna's "Spikevax" surely wins there.)
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AZ vax is "Vaxzevria" in most parts of the world. It's hard to imagine humans coming up with some of these names,
 
Inka said:
Thank you @Bruce Stephens Useful to know.
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Here's something probably more useful: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2780861
In this cohort study of 248 persons with MIS-C, MIS-C incidence was 5.1 persons per 1 000 000 person-months and 316 persons per 1 000 000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in persons younger than 21 years. Incidence was higher among Black, Hispanic or Latino, and Asian or Pacific Islander persons compared with White persons and in younger persons compared with older persons.​

Presuming those are both still about right I think that would suggest O(1) deaths per million of children who get infected which I think we're expecting will be all children. (That's deaths of this particular cause. There may well be other long term harms from infection of various incidences and I presume there's a small number of deaths similar to those of adults.)
 
Eddy Edson said:
AZ vax is "Vaxzevria" in most parts of the world. It's hard to imagine humans coming up with some of these names,
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I quite like "Vaxzevria". I'm imagining it in a Spanish or similar accent and I think it works. (Better than Pfizer's, anyway.)

I wonder if Pfizer has a long standing pattern for naming such things (leading to their name) and Moderna (being new) could go with the rather brash Spikevax.

(On the other hand I'm in no way qualified to judge. Nobody would want me doing their marketing.)
 
Bruce Stephens said:
Here's something probably more useful: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2780861
In this cohort study of 248 persons with MIS-C, MIS-C incidence was 5.1 persons per 1 000 000 person-months and 316 persons per 1 000 000 SARS-CoV-2 infections in persons younger than 21 years. Incidence was higher among Black, Hispanic or Latino, and Asian or Pacific Islander persons compared with White persons and in younger persons compared with older persons.​

Presuming those are both still about right I think that would suggest O(1) deaths per million of children who get infected which I think we're expecting will be all children. (That's deaths of this particular cause. There may well be other long term harms from infection of various incidences and I presume there's a small number of deaths similar to those of adults.)
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From https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10654-020-00698-1 the overall COVID IFR for kids <17 seems to be around 0.001% - 0.002%, so 10 or 20 per million.
 
Amity Island said:
How many of those 10 or 20 had serious pre-existing health conditions? What is the IFR for healthy kids?
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Here's a relevant paper which suggests pediatric comorbidities are significant
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Severe COVID-19 Infection and Pediatric Comorbidities: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

There is limited information on the severity of COVID-19 infection in children with comorbidities. We investigated the effects of pediatric comorbidities on COVID-19 severity by means of a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature.PubMed, ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
Amity Island said:
Hi Nonethewiser,

In what way does it make sense?

https://forum.diabetes.org.uk/boards/threads/jabbed-adults-infected-with-delta-‘can-match-virus-levels-of-unvaccinated’.95373/

www.thetimes.co.uk

Half of Covid hospital cases fully vaccinated

Almost half of Covid-19 patients admitted to hospital so far this week have been fully vaccinated, the HSE director-general has said.Paul Reid said that 49 per
www.thetimes.co.uk www.thetimes.co.uk
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Young adults are super spreaders of covid, so more vaccinated better it is to bring down infection rates.

Own children are grown up, if they were still kids wouldnt have any hesitation having them vaccinated.
 
nonethewiser said:
Young adults are super spreaders of covid, so more vaccinated better it is to bring down infection rates.

Own children are grown up, if they were still kids wouldnt have any hesitation having them vaccinated.
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Yes, I wouldn’t want my children giving Covid to their grandparents or to the two people in my family who have very compromised immune systems - or indeed to anyone else’s relatives.
 
Benny G said:
It's only the unvaccinated or those without natural immunity who are at risk. That includes parents, grand parents, and everyone else's relatives.
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People who are vaccinated are at much lower risk of serious illness. Can still become sick. The figure seems to be 20 years: a (fully) vaccinated person has about the same risk as an unvaccinated person 20 years younger.
 
Benny G said:
It's only the unvaccinated or those without natural immunity who are at risk. That includes parents, grand parents, and everyone else's relatives.
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The vaccines aren’t 100% effective though, are they, so being vaccinated isn’t a guarantee, especially if you’re older. Also, I mentioned the two people who have severe immune problems - they’re vaccinated but have been told they are still at risk from Covid due to a lesser response to the vaccine and their additional health issues.
 
Inka said:
The vaccines aren’t 100% effective though, are they, so being vaccinated isn’t a guarantee, especially if you’re older. Also, I mentioned the two people who have severe immune problems - they’re vaccinated but have been told they are still at risk from Covid due to a lesser response to the vaccine and their additional health issues.
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Yes, we're all still at some risk from it, and older people are (other things being equal) at greater risk. Vaccination (or, presumably, surviving and recovering from infection) reduces the risk (by about 20 years as I wrote above).

So a vaccinated 80 year old has about the same risk as an unvaccinated 60 year old.
 
Bruce Stephens said:
Probably coincidence.
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Maybe you're right and it's not coincidence. It's probably hard to have an average (of any kind) higher than about 80 years because that's the expected (in some loose sense) age of death: there just aren't enough people over that age to raise the average that much.
 
Amity Island said:
Is natural acquired immunity a better, quicker, cheaper, and a longer lasting solution?
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I think it's cheaper. You'd also need to add in the cost of a non-trivial proportion of children needing a (brief) stay in hospital, and a larger proportion of parents who need to stay home looking after sick children. I still suspect it's cheaper because the proportion is quite small, I'd guess (I've seen estimates 0.5%-2% of infected children needing significant care).

Better, quicker, longer lasting? No idea. Not safer, since while deaths in children from this are rare, they do happen, and the vaccines are still looking really safe. I think we don't know about longer lasting. People have argued that vaccine induced immunity is stronger and more general (I think some people who recovered from infection turned out to have quite specific antibodies, but I'm not quite sure what that would mean).

I think in France you can be fully vaccinated with a single dose of vaccine if you also recovered from infection which is probably a reasonable balance.

My guess is that if money were no object, vaccinating children as we do for many other diseases would be best, so an mRNA vaccine at the same time as MMR (with similar, long, spacing between doses). Likely with smaller doses than are used for adults (so a bit cheaper, though practicalities of doing that with the current storage requirements probably makes it infeasible).
 
Amity Island said:
Seems to be no discussion of this in the MSM.
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Don't know where you're looking, but there's certainly discussions around it. I've heard Prof Paul Hunter talk several times of the idea of this becoming an endemic infection (like the coronaviruses that cause colds) that children get, so in a decade or two we won't really notice it.

I haven't heard anyone serious suggesting covid parties to make sure that children do get infected (which would surely be logical). My suspicion is that that's just because it would sound too silly (given that we have suitable vaccines) but I'm not sure what's wrong with the idea: either offer vaccination or make sure children encounter the virus when it's relatively safe for them to do so. (Maybe the plan would be that most children would get it, but you'd also give a vaccination when they're 12, say.)
 
Amity Island said:
This leads me onto the obvious question about where we are heading next with the bans?

1. Are the schools going to decide to ban kids who aren't vaccinated?
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Doubt it. Some private schools might (to reduce disruption from sickness, if and when vaccinations became approved by JCVI), but I'd guess they'd start with staff rather than pupils (again to reduce disruption).

I don't think schools require even MMR do they?
 
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