Covid cases drop by almost 13,000 over past week

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Don't want to prolong this debate but I have had a look at the "daily cases" number to see if I can figure out what it means and I am finding it very difficult!

If you go to the government dashboard and scroll down you will find a link which allows you to download the data. There you might expect to find a set of files giving the number of tests done each day split into PCR tests and lateral flow tests and the number positive tests again split into PCR and lateral flow. From those data you should be able to make an assessment of the proportion of tests that are positive, ensure that the data are not confounded by the test type and make some judgement of the extent of the virus in the population. If you check this out, you will find a long list of files but nearly all of them are processed data - very, very, difficult to get back to the raw numbers with any degree of confidence. Calling the number published "daily cases" is pushing it a bit.

There is only one conclusion I can come to and that is one should be a bit wary when listening what is being said about the numbers, be it from the scientists or the conspiracy theorists, the politicians or the journalists, the amateurs or the pros. Interpreting the data is a long way from straightforward and you can cut it to support any point of view that you want to put forward.

PS... the recent drop in daily cases seems to correspond with a drop in the number of tests done which seems to correspond with a drop in lateral flow tests, but I would not go as far as to suggest this correspondence amounts to a correlation.
 
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