COVID-19 vs the economy

[Bruce Stephens]

I think that's where we will clearly disagree on that point, because i'm firmly under the understanding from the aims of the fourth industrial revolution, the great reset and the green agenda (which are widely publicised and real agendas) that although the lockdowns may have in the first instance have been used as a covid19 measure, I don't think we'd still be in lockdown if there wasn't also the 7.6% target in carbon emissions reductions to meet from 2020 - 2030 and beyond.

I think that view is an very implausible conspiracy theory. I really don't think the various world organisations (who've recommended against lockdowns, arguing for extensive testing, contact tracing, supported isolation, together with limited local measures where those aren't sufficient; lockdowns were always supposed to be to give time so you can increase capacity for the other things) have enough power to do that, and if they did there's no chance whatsoever that they could keep it hidden, especially with so many rather powerful vocal groups who still want to deny global warming is even happening.

I think it's vastly more likely that things are much as they appear: different countries were hit in different ways by the virus, and have different population densities and distributions, different histories, different leaderships. Some (like those in Eastern Asia) had recent experience of nasty viruses and so used the same playbook, largely managing to handle the virus effectively; some (Australia, New Zealand) handled it rather well but at the expense of largely cutting themselves off from the rest of the world. And the rest of us handled it with varying degrees of success, depending on luck and leadership.

It's true that international travel is drastically reduced, and presumably will be for a while. And in many countries local travel and other activities are much reduced. As far as I'm aware nobody thinks that's anywhere near sufficient to address global warming; it's really just a blip in what appears to be the inexorable rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

It's also true that there's a hope that we'll "build back better", with increased working from home, less business travel, etc. Maybe that was the plan all along, but opportunism seems rather more likely to me.

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - In Charge

Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal - In Charge

www.smbc-comics.com

 

[Bruce Stephens]

I'm not talking conspiracies

I think you are. Overall, it looks like the virus is sufficient to explain what governments have done. And while the proactive actions of places like New Zealand seemed harder to understand back when they made them, I think it's easier to see them now as gutsy calls that turned out well rather than actions driven by some other reason. I don't see any reason to look for other explanations.

I think the connection with global warming (that many of these measures, though probably not all, also helps to reduce our CO2 production) is just a coincidence. As are the opportunities that they suggest for the future.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

that we were one of the best prepared countries in the world for a pandemic.

As was the US. Turns out we were mostly prepared for pandemic influenza and we're lead by Boris Johnson (surrounded by people chosen for their loyalty to him), and the US has Donald Trump with similarly chosen people.

 

[Eddy Edson]

From an Oz perspective, not moving quickly to close borders looks more & more like the single biggest mistake most countries have made.

Snippet from Guardian live blog:


A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries, including 80% in the UK, the Financial Times (paywall) reports.

An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

Their work suggests that people returning from holiday in Spain played a key role in transmitting the virus across Europe, raising questions about whether the second wave that is sweeping the continent could have been reduced by improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Please don't tell me it's to save lives.

It is, I'm afraid. (Not yet: for the moment we're getting probably ineffective measures regionally.)

But yes. You saw the videos of some hospitals in northern Italy in the spring, and in New York at the peak of the infection? The government really doesn't want that, with doctors choosing who they have to let die. They really want to "protect the NHS" in the sense of preventing that kind of chaos; they seem OK with all elective surgery being postponed (that happened in winter even before COVID).

And yes, that means some other people will die instead, but I don't think there's much of a choice. The NHS is limited, and if it has to work hard on COVID patients it's not going to be treating so many cancer (or other) cases.

So likely the choices are we control the virus and (I hope) also keep most other NHS services available, though more limited; we allow the virus to spread out of control and the NHS becomes the COVID service again, with very limited other services, and lots of unnecessarily dead COVID patients too. (And yes, most of the dead COVID patients will be old people, but many will be losing years rather than months of life. And they won't all be old.)

 

[Eddy Edson]

Snippet from Guardian live blog:


A coronavirus variant that originated in Spanish farm workers has spread rapidly through much of Europe since the summer, and now accounts for the majority of new Covid-19 cases in several countries, including 80% in the UK, the Financial Times (paywall) reports.

An international team of scientists that has been tracking the virus through its genetic mutations described the extraordinary spread of the variant, called 20A.EU1, in a research paper to be published on Thursday.

Their work suggests that people returning from holiday in Spain played a key role in transmitting the virus across Europe, raising questions about whether the second wave that is sweeping the continent could have been reduced by improved screening at airports and other transport hubs.

A thread on this by one of the researchers:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1321725373391003648

For whatever reason, from July this strain of virus has become far & away the most prevalent in the UK (about 90% frequency) but not in other European countries:



Suggestion on how it spread so much in the UK:

Combined with getting into a population cohort where spread was easier- perhaps those who were infected abroad were in more risky settings, which they also visited when home - this could have given 20A.EU1 a transmission advantage.

I guess consistent with: people on holidays in Spain got infected in bars, weren't effectively screened on arrival back in the UK, and then spread it in bars back home.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Isn't that the same conclusion I have drawn?

I'd conclude that we need to impose measures which are effective (in reducing infection levels), whether regional or not. I don't see the economy, healthcare system, etc., recovering without keeping the prevalence of infected people quite a bit below 1% of the population.

(Or, from my perspective equivalently, we need behavioural changes which do that. I'd prefer to minimise that and instead of coercion use advice together with support so that people can effectively follow the advice, with clear and worthwhile goals so that everyone understands why they're being advised. I'm sure some coercion is required, but probably less than the government thinks, if they tried effective communication again, maybe even with a bit of honesty.)

 

[mikeyB]

The government science advisers have been shouting about a total lockdown nationwide, as they did in the Spring two weeks before the government listened, and as governments round Europe are doing.

I would have thought pragmatically a lockdown involving mass
Vaccination would knock the current spread of the virus.