COVID-19 No longer a high consequence infectious disease

[Amity Island]

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.


The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

High consequence infectious diseases (HCID)

Guidance and information about high consequence infectious diseases and their management in England.

www.gov.uk

 

[Robin]

I think the change in classification had to be made for technical reasons. An HCID case has to be transferred to one of four specialist hospitals in England. Two in London, and Newcastle and Liverpool. I can’t imagine them being able to cope with all the Covid cases needing hospitalisation!

 

[Ditto]

The lady on the telly just now said it's not a virus, it's a plague.

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

I think the change in classification had to be made for technical reasons. An HCID case has to be transferred to one of four specialist hospitals in England. Two in London, and Newcastle and Liverpool. I can’t imagine them being able to cope with all the Covid cases needing hospitalisation!

Ah! That makes much more sense!

 

[Amity Island]

I think the change in classification had to be made for technical reasons. An HCID case has to be transferred to one of four specialist hospitals in England. Two in London, and Newcastle and Liverpool. I can’t imagine them being able to cope with all the Covid cases needing hospitalisation!

Hi Robin, based on the official statement within the document (which has downgraded COVID-19 from a HCID) it states the principle reason was based on low mortality rates.

I can't imagine any government saying, "hold on a minute, we can't handle all these patients with COVID-19 lets downgrade it". If it's a HCID then it is, if it isn't it isn't. The criteria for making that distinction hasn't changed since they first classified it.

 

[Amity Island]

I think the change in classification had to be made for technical reasons. An HCID case has to be transferred to one of four specialist hospitals in England. Two in London, and Newcastle and Liverpool. I can’t imagine them being able to cope with all the Covid cases needing hospitalisation!

Also I have noticed that official sources are still citing COVID-19 as a HCID high consequence infectious disease. Take for example some official sources below. Official sources should be up to date.

COVID-19

ics.ac.uk

https://www.england.nhs.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/20200305-COVID-19-PRIMARY-CARE-SOP-GP-PUBLICATION-V1.1.pdf

 

[Amity Island]

As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK.


The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

High consequence infectious diseases (HCID)

Guidance and information about high consequence infectious diseases and their management in England.

www.gov.uk

If anyone is interested in the latest figures, see official government link below, for regional cases and totals.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

 

[Amity Island]

News reports today are now suggesting that UK could be the worst hit country in Europe with COVID19. It seems odd that the virus was downgraded just a few of weeks ago, just 2 days before government announced a lock down. That said, initial medical advice to the government suggested it could cause 500,000 deaths. Current records show 10,000 deaths (of which only a small percentage of those are probably caused by and not just testing positive with covid19).

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

It seems odd that the virus was downgraded just a few of weeks ago,

I was struck by @Robin ‘s original response to this thread, which resolved my initial confusion about your post.

My understanding is that it wasn’t a ‘downgrading’ so much as a reclassification out of one response protocol into something more suitable for a disease which could no longer be realistically contained, and needed treating more widely at larger volume.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

That said, initial medical advice to the government suggested it could cause 500,000 deaths.

That was if we did nothing, but the hope (and expectation) was always that that result would provoke action. The model offered a range of results depending on what action was taken and other things (including just uncertainty). Now that we've taken reasonably strong action the predictions of deaths are much lower than that. Same model, more or less, but government actions have changed things.

 

[Amity Island]

I was struck by @Robin ‘s original response to this thread, which resolved my initial confusion about your post.

My understanding is that it wasn’t a ‘downgrading’ so much as a reclassification out of one response protocol into something more suitable for a disease which could no longer be realistically contained, and needed treating more widely at larger volume.

Hi Mike,
I agree that Robin's post did make a lot of more sense (reclassified for technical reasons rather than genuine reasons) and could well be the case, but that isn't the reason given in the official statement given by our government. I still think it should have remained a HCID based on what was happening at the time and now based on what is happening now. Who's to say they won't re classify it back again?

 

[Amity Island]

That was if we did nothing, but the hope (and expectation) was always that that result would provoke action. The model offered a range of results depending on what action was taken and other things (including just uncertainty). Now that we've taken reasonably strong action the predictions of deaths are much lower than that. Same model, more or less, but government actions have changed things.

Hi Bruce,

I agree, that is the figure given based on no action being taken at all, but the chap who advised the government according to another professor said the chap was renowned for making "severely flawed" models. I mean, there are thousands of medical experts out there, why seek the advice of someone known for making severely flawed models?

Professor who said 500,000 Britons could die 'has patchy record'

Professor Neil Ferguson, a director at Imperial College, London, said that control measures could only cut deaths to around 250,000. Academic rival Professor Michael Thrusfield disputed work.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Jodee]

that seems contradictory since its says further down

quote:

Classification of HCIDs
HCIDs are further divided into contact and airborne groups:

• contact HCIDs are usually spread by direct contact with an infected patient or infected fluids, tissues and other materials, or by indirect contact with contaminated materials and fomites
• airborne HCIDs are spread by respiratory droplets or aerosol transmission, in addition to contact routes of transmission

unquote


with 10,000 dead in near on less than a month !!

 

[Amity Island]

that seems contradictory since its says further down

quote:

Classification of HCIDs
HCIDs are further divided into contact and airborne groups:

• contact HCIDs are usually spread by direct contact with an infected patient or infected fluids, tissues and other materials, or by indirect contact with contaminated materials and fomites
• airborne HCIDs are spread by respiratory droplets or aerosol transmission, in addition to contact routes of transmission

unquote


with 10,000 dead in near on less than a month !!

Hi, I think it still should be classed as a HCID with the levels of deaths, perhaps they will reclassify it?

Also from what I understand, as you point out, there are only 2 possible types, airborne (which this one is) or direct contact, not both which is what is being said on the news and other sources.

As of today, the intensive care society describe the airborne virus as

"As is now well-known, COVID-19 is an airborne High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID-A) caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus and now spreading globally."

COVID-19

ics.ac.uk

 

[Robin]

Hi, I think it still should be classed as a HCID with the levels of deaths, perhaps they will reclassify it?

Also from what I understand, as you point out, there are only 2 possible types, airborne (which this one is) or direct contact, not both which is what is being said on the news and other sources.

As of today, the intensive care society describe the airborne virus as

"As is now well-known, COVID-19 is an airborne High Consequence Infectious Disease (HCID-A) caused by the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus and now spreading globally."

COVID-19

ics.ac.uk

But it doesn’t say 'Airborne or contact' in Jodee's extract above, it says 'contact' or 'airborne in addition to contact'
And also see the reply Ive just put on your other thread.

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