The WHO taskforce which visited China has released its full report:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
Really interesting. The main point: it can be contained by effective and proactive action to detect, diagnose and isolate cases.
- Transmission within households and via person-to-person contact, not though the air. Good! An explanation for why social isolation-type measures have been very effective for containment.
- No signs of transmission from children to adults. Good!
- Infection of HCW's appears to derive mainly from the same household setting, not from hospitals. Good!
- Asympotamtic cases appear to be very rare. Asymptomatic people testing positive generally went on to develop symptoms. Good!
- The same 80%+ "mild" symptoms as reported previously. "Severe" at 6% a tad higher than the previously reported 5%.
- Mean incubation period 5-6 days, range 1-14 days.
- Similar risk profile for severe cases as reported previously: older, prior health conditions; children rarely.
- CFR's in ground-zero Wuhan dramatically and quickly declining: started at 20%+, now down to 0.7% with evolving care standards. Kudos to China!
Chart illustrates:
- Among severe cases, 13% have died - much better than previous reports. One hospital reporting 26% of "severe" case recovered and 46% improved to "mild" or "moderate".
- Task Force says: "China has rolled out perhaps the most ambitious, agile and aggressive containment effort in history".
- "This decline in COVID cases across China is real" [2,478 new cases on the day just before the Task Force started, 409 on its last day.]
- Global community needs to get its act together and follow China's lead: extremely proactive surveillance, very rapid diagnosis and immediate isolation, rigorous tracking and quarantine of close contacts, exceptionally high population level of understanding and compliance.
- And it needs to do this quickly: the thing spreads "with astonishing speed".