Are government about to do a u-turn after vaccine rollout?

[Bruce Stephens]

I certainly hope so, but for me, what Johnson said seems to be pointing in the other direction.

He's leading a Party with many members who want to speed up lifting the restrictions.

So the obvious explanation is that this is him pushing back and wanting to stick to the roadmap, in the hope that it really will be irreversible and that this really will be the last lockdown. I agree that kind of caution doesn't sit easily with his past behaviour, but it seems to me to be just uncharacteristic of him rather than impossible. That seems vastly more believable than some conspiracy involving climate change, anyway.

 

[Docb]

I can't help but think that we are in another battle of the PR companies. Those doing the lockdown will claim it was all due to them, those doing the vaccination will claim it was all due to them, the test and trace lot will say it was all due to them and I'm betting that even the flat earth society are claiming to have had something to do with it. Reality is that lots of things have had some effect and I wish there was some sort of system to look at the data dispassionately and reach sensible conclusions about the relative effects of the various factors rather than having a who can shout the loudest contest.

 

[Amity Island]

And I have commented to you before, that the average stay in hospital, or time lived fighting Covid is at least a month, often longer, so the rise in deaths has a time lag from the case rate surge.

But there is no corresponding increase in hosptital admissions in the month before (the sudden spike in deaths after the lockdown on the 23rd March). So we have no excess deaths and no excess hospital admissions before the lockdown.

 

[Amity Island]

I can't help but think that we are in another battle of the PR companies. Those doing the lockdown will claim it was all due to them, those doing the vaccination will claim it was all due to them, the test and trace lot will say it was all due to them and I'm betting that even the flat earth society are claiming to have had something to do with it. Reality is that lots of things have had some effect and I wish there was some sort of system to look at the data dispassionately and reach sensible conclusions about the relative effects of the various factors rather than having a who can shout the loudest contest.

Hi DocB,

What do you make of the fact there were no excess deaths or excess hosptial admissions until 23rd March when lockdown was brought in? Does this not point to the fact lockdown caused the huge and sudden spike in deaths? If not what did?

 

[Amity Island]

That seems vastly more believable than some conspiracy involving climate change, anyway.

What conspiracy? Climate change is real and I believe governments are doing what they can to tackle it, even if that includes using lockdowns for more than one reason.

 

[Robin]

But there is no corresponding increase in hosptital admissions in the month before (the sudden spike in deaths after the lockdown on the 23rd March). So we have no excess deaths and no excess hospital admissions before the lockdown.

You keep maintaining that lockdown caused the spike in hospital admissions and deaths. What do you make of the belief held by one section of society that we locked down a week too late and could have saved lives by doing it earlier? Have you looked at the case rate graphs? I notice you don’t post them. In the two weeks before lockdown, the U.K went from 321 cases on 9th March, to 1543 cases on 16th March to 6650 cases on 23rd March. An exponential growth if ever there was one, and all before lockdown.(source. Worldometers)

 

[Robin]

What conspiracy? Climate change is real and I believe governments are doing what they can to tackle it, even if that includes using lockdowns for more than one reason.

It’s not the fact of Climate change which is being called a conspiracy, but the conjecture that Governments all over the world are using the pandemic as an excuse to get their green credentials in order.

 

[Amity Island]

You keep maintaining that lockdown caused the spike in hospital admissions and deaths. What do you make of the belief held by one section of society that we locked down a week too late and could have saved lives by doing it earlier? Have you looked at the case rate graphs? I notice you don’t post them. In the two weeks before lockdown, the U.K went from 321 cases on 9th March, to 1543 cases on 16th March to 6650 cases on 23rd March. An exponential growth if ever there was one, and all before lockdown.(source. Worldometers)

Robin,

I was only responding to the reason you gave "that the average stay in hospital, or time lived fighting Covid is at least a month" for the reason the spike in deaths hit on the day of lockdown. There is no evidence to suggest that to be the case as there were no corresponding spikes in hospital admission a month prior.

Cases doesn't = deaths, nor does it mean people are ill with covid, nor does it mean they were in hospital, nor does it even mean they have symptoms or know they have it. That is why I try not to refer to "cases".

 

[mikeyB]

You might ask why many Tory MPs want the lockdown eased faster than Boris. It’s our old friend eugenics. They have realised that the faster you ease lockdown, the more poor and BAME will die. It’s a freebie for racists and eugenicists. It’s not even a conspiracy theory that needs vocalising, they have to just sit and watch the numbers. It’s the elephant in the room.

I am not, by the way, suggesting that is the reason for most thinking folk who are anti-lockdown who ask rational questions.

Hi DocB,

What do you make of the fact there were no excess deaths or excess hosptial admissions until 23rd March when lockdown was brought in? Does this not point to the fact lockdown caused the huge and sudden spike in deaths? If not what did?

You might equally ask how the excess death rate fell after the lockdown had been in place for some weeks. There’s always a lag. Mind you, this government has shown all through the pandemic that you can show anything in graphs. They gave up early on comparing infection rates in other countries, but never compared us to Australia and New Zealand (who demonstrated how to do it in an island country). Now they will bring it back to support their admirable vaccination plans. All part of the great pissing contest.

And meanwhile, infections and death rates are soaring exponentially in India and Africa, where lockdowns are impractical, and India is the world’s largest manufacturer of vaccines. While all that is going on, mutating forms of the virus could render all our prevention ability futile.

 

[Docb]

Hi DocB,

What do you make of the fact there were no excess deaths or excess hosptial admissions until 23rd March when lockdown was brought in? Does this not point to the fact lockdown caused the huge and sudden spike in deaths? If not what did?

My thoughts were entirely about the current position and the decline in everything over the last couple of months or so. The reason for the decline will be due to a mix of things and everybody and their father claiming that it was mostly due to their efforts alone is not particularly enlightening or helpful.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

My thoughts were entirely about the current position and the decline in everything over the last couple of months or so. The reason for the decline will be due to a mix of things and everybody and their father claiming that it was mostly due to their efforts alone is not particularly enlightening or helpful.

Of course it's a combination of things. The PM could have been more nuanced in his statement, but this government really likes messages that fit into three words (and not long words).

I think it's correct to say that the reduction in cases is mostly the restrictions rather than vaccination (as David Spiegelhalter said this morning, the reduction has mostly happened in people who hadn't been vaccinated). And I don't think anyone thinks test and trace is doing that much beyond the testing part.

John Burn-Murdoch (from the FT) produced some graphs approximating the impact of vaccines and lockdown (and other effects) (based on age, I think):

https://twitter.com/x/status/1382013080448724994

 

[Amity Island]

My thoughts were entirely about the current position and the decline in everything over the last couple of months or so. The reason for the decline will be due to a mix of things and everybody and their father claiming that it was mostly due to their efforts alone is not particularly enlightening or helpful.

I know 🙂 I was just asking you, as you always have a balanced view on things and give a sensible considered opinion on things.

 

[Amity Island]

Surely the purposes of a lockdown is simply to halt the spread? If people enter lockdown unvaccinated but emerge vaccinated, they are rejoining a world where the virus has been kept largely in check and they now have a degree of protection to stop it flaring up again.

Hi Anitram,

That's pretty much how I understood it all. That's why I was so suprised to see that interview, Johnson knocking the effectiveness of Vaccines on the pandemic, alluding to the fact that if there is a wave of deaths or hospitalisations it will require more lockdowns and/or restrictions again. I thought by vaccinating millions of the most vulnerable, this would avoid high number of deaths and hospitalisations and prevent further lockdowns and thus we can get back to life.

 

[nonethewiser]

This sounds like the government are hinting at a u-turn after the roll out of the vaccines. Saying it's NOT the vaccines that control the number of cases but the lockdowns.

Don't see it that way, combination of both, government know that mate.

 

[Amity Island]

Don't see it that way, combination of both, government know that mate.

I think they do too, they must do, why bother vaccinating millions of people then say it's not the vaccines that are doing the work but the lockdowns. they might be "hesitant" about the efficacy of the vaccines and are pre-warning people that there may well be a up turn in hospital admissions and deaths? who knows. It just seemed like a very odd thing to say on international news.

 

[Inka]

I think they do too, they must do, why bother vaccinating millions of people then say it's not the vaccines that are doing the work but the lockdowns. they might be "hesitant" about the efficacy of the vaccines and are pre-warning people that there may well be a up turn in hospital admissions and deaths? who knows. It just seemed like a very odd thing to say on international news.

I’ve just watched the interview again. Boris says it’s “very, very important that people understand” that it’s the Lockdown that’s driven down deaths, etc and not the vaccines. He says that just after talking about people now being able to go to shops, hairdressers and the like. I guess he saw those absolute cretins pushing their faces together in pub gardens, hanging off each other and generally not making the slightest effort to socially distance. His words were a warning to them and to people who think like them to a lesser extent. His words as quoted above are code/politeness but I’ve put it more bluntly.

 

[Amity Island]

I’ve just watched the interview again. Boris says it’s “very, very important that people understand” that it’s the Lockdown that’s driven down deaths, etc and not the vaccines. He says that just after talking about people now being able to go to shops, hairdressers and the like. I guess he saw those absolute cretins pushing their faces together in pub gardens, hanging off each other and generally not making the slightest effort to socially distance. His words were a warning to them and to people who think like them to a lesser extent. His words as quoted above are code/politeness but I’ve put it more bluntly.

Hi Inka,

I still can't believe he came out with it. A couple of days after lifting restrictions.

How will what he said help convince the remaining people to get vaccinated?

I'd say herd immunity must be very near? Plus it's end of what is normally flu season. Natural immunity as well. All these things will have had some impact on reducing cases too I'd of thought. But no mention of these, only lockdowns!

 

[Amity Island]

He's leading a Party with many members who want to speed up lifting the restrictions.

So the obvious explanation is that this is him pushing back and wanting to stick to the roadmap, in the hope that it really will be irreversible and that this really will be the last lockdown. I agree that kind of caution doesn't sit easily with his past behaviour, but it seems to me to be just uncharacteristic of him rather than impossible. That seems vastly more believable than some conspiracy involving climate change, anyway.

Bruce,

It's no "conspiracy" it's out there if you want to look. It's very easy to dismiss something one doesn't believe or like, however, see this quote from our government last year. I think this is sufficient to convince anyone who is unaware of the green agenda (not conspiracy) that they are making the most of the current crisis to bring about further changes.

"The pandemic has painfully exposed our vulnerabilities. Whilst we remain committed to tackling its immediate impacts, we must also seize this opportunity to create greener, healthier, more inclusive and resilient economies and societies, and to accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals and Paris Agreement."

Financing the 2030 Agenda through Covid-19 and beyond

Ministerial Meeting on Financing the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in the Era of Covid-19 and Beyond

www.gov.uk

 

[Amity Island]

Matt Hancock said this in January 2021. (Very different to what Johnson said on Sky News this week).

"We begin 2021 knowing that vaccines are our way out of this pandemic."

Statement from Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, Matt Hancock on testing and vaccinations

Secretary of State for Health and Social Care shares thoughts on vaccines, testing and the R number.

www.gov.uk

and this in February...

"the study shows "vaccines are the way out of this pandemic".

Covid-19: Study showing Oxford vaccine slows virus spread 'superb' - Hancock

As results show the Oxford jab may cut transmission, the health secretary says it offers a "way out".

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Inka]

Hi Inka,

I still can't believe he came out with it. A couple of days after lifting restrictions.

How will what he said help convince the remaining people to get vaccinated?

I'd say herd immunity must be very near? Plus it's end of what is normally flu season. Natural immunity as well. All these things will have had some impact on reducing cases too I'd of thought. But no mention of these, only lockdowns!

Lockdown lifts, we have a vaccine and have been vaccinating people, so it’s all over, right? Off we go drinking, shopping, making up for the last few weeks because, hey, don’t you know, we have a vaccine now. All over. Covid’s finished.

Some people honestly think that.

So that’s why Boris gave his warning. He’s saying people can’t relax and just go right back to normal because although we have a vaccine, we’ve all been locked down for weeks and that is what’s reduced the numbers. Added to that, the main spreaders have NOT been vaccinated. Now they are ‘free’ again, they need to be told emphatically that the existence and use of the vaccine is NOT free rein to do as they please.