Anyone else think the same

[mikeydt1]

with every country in lock-down and still seeing death rates soaring does anyone else think that a lock down really works or is making it worse, if it was working then we surely wouldn't see Italy and Spain along with New York with so many deaths.

also does anyone else think this is air-borne? i have spoken with a few people and they think so esp with the high amount of deaths.

finally just after Xmas many of us in our area fell really sick and a press article suggests that the virus might of all ready been here without anyone knowing it, mine was described as strange flu like symptoms without the flu but made me extremely unwell.

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

I don’t think that‘s how I view it, personally.

I think if you examine the way the confirmed virus has spread in various countries (rather than speculation about unconfirmed illnesses which may or may not have been connected), and what measures were put in place when, then it seems pretty clear that early intense testing and isolation of cases, combined with significant restrictions on movement have a significant impact.

The virus doesn’t spread - people spread it. The US seems to be a case in point. The relaxed early approach has resulted in a very steep rise now.

 

[Eddy Edson]

No, all the evidence so far shows that distancing is effective. Much more so if done early & decisively, and even more so if combined with widespread testing and contact tracing.

 

[Amity Island]

with every country in lock-down and still seeing death rates soaring does anyone else think that a lock down really works or is making it worse, if it was working then we surely wouldn't see Italy and Spain along with New York with so many deaths.

also does anyone else think this is air-borne? i have spoken with a few people and they think so esp with the high amount of deaths.

finally just after Xmas many of us in our area fell really sick and a press article suggests that the virus might of all ready been here without anyone knowing it, mine was described as strange flu like symptoms without the flu but made me extremely unwell.

I think this article provides some answers. It's seems to be about how covid19 cases are now being recorded. Having covid19 recorded at death doesn't mean covid19 was the cause of death. Someone may have died of a heart attack unrelated to the covid19 virus.

Note: Flu is not a notifiable disease.

How deadly is the coronavirus? It's still far from clear

In announcing the most far-reaching restrictions on personal freedom in the history of our nation, Boris Johnson resolutely followed the scientific advice that he had been given. The advisers to the government seem calm and collected, with a solid consensus among them. In the face of a new viral...

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[Eddy Edson]

This piece reflects consensus epidemiologist thinking & illustrates why experts are talking in terms of a lockdown lasting ~6 months: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

The Spanish flu pandemic provides the best model available & the message is clear: localities which introduced distancing measures earliest and kept them going the longest had the best outcomes, in terms of fatalities and also economically.

 

[Eddy Edson]

This piece reflects consensus epidemiologist thinking & illustrates why experts are talking in terms of a lockdown lasting ~6 months: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/

The Spanish flu pandemic provides the best model available & the message is clear: localities which introduced distancing measures earliest and kept them going the longest had the best outcomes, in terms of fatalities and also economically.

Even though obviously not completely apples vs apples, it's worth thinking a bit about the fatality rates displayed in that article vs the current situation.

Across the US cities shown, a range of 2,900 to 8,070 per million over 6 months.

At the moment, overwhelmed countries like Italy and Spain are showing < 200 per million. Badly prepared countries like the UK and the US are showing < 20. Well prepared countries like Oz, Germany, Israel, Sth Korea are showing < 10 or even < 1.

Obviously these rates are going to go up a lot but recent data generally shows deceleration and IMO FWIW it's not very likely we'll see Spanish flu levels at the 6 month mark.

Fauci in the US is talking about 200,000 fatalities as a possible "good" outcome there. This would be around 600 per million.

 

[zoombapup]

There's plenty of information out there about what the Virus is and how its transmitted. I think this interview with a senior medic in South Korea (where after an initial outbreak they seem to have had a fast and strong response and have significantly lower transmission and lockdown than us). Basic takeaway is that everyone there wears a mask and washes their hands regularly. Culturally they are far more likely to think of others before themselves so are less likely to do the dumb stuff we're seeing here in Europe and the US.

He explains how it is transmitted and what they know about treatments so far. Again takeaway is that it can be aerosol but generally isn't, lasts for up to around 5 days on non porous surfaces and about a day on porous surfaces like cardboard.

We're doing the lockdown thing, because our governments weren't prepared and didn't act quickly enough or seriously enough. Our situation has been made massively worse by managerial incompetence on a grand scale by ministers and the political class in general.

I think my takeaway is that next time something like this happens, we should put the military in charge, because at least they understand the urgency of action and have professional experience managing rapid deployments of men and materials.

 

[Eddy Edson]

There's plenty of information out there about what the Virus is and how its transmitted. I think this interview with a senior medic in South Korea (where after an initial outbreak they seem to have had a fast and strong response and have significantly lower transmission and lockdown than us). Basic takeaway is that everyone there wears a mask and washes their hands regularly. Culturally they are far more likely to think of others before themselves so are less likely to do the dumb stuff we're seeing here in Europe and the US.

He explains how it is transmitted and what they know about treatments so far. Again takeaway is that it can be aerosol but generally isn't, lasts for up to around 5 days on non porous surfaces and about a day on porous surfaces like cardboard.

We're doing the lockdown thing, because our governments weren't prepared and didn't act quickly enough or seriously enough. Our situation has been made massively worse by managerial incompetence on a grand scale by ministers and the political class in general.

I think my takeaway is that next time something like this happens, we should put the military in charge, because at least they understand the urgency of action and have professional experience managing rapid deployments of men and materials.

The common advice against masks is looking increasingly thin & no surprise if that gets reversed soon.

Problem is of course - not enough masks.

I wouldn't only blame politicians; medical advisors will need to be scrutinised also, I think. The advice the UK govt was getting seems to have been bizarrely bad up until recently, in the face of clear guidelines from the WHO etc: test a lot, try to trace and isolate every contact, do a lot of community surveillance.

I tend to believe BJ when he says he's followed expert advice, to a large extent. Problem is that much of this advice seems to have been c**p.

There has also been clear WHO etc guidance for years that countries need to be prepared for an outbreak like this. My little state, relatively poor and relatively aged, like a good little state citizen followed this advice with the result that it was all set up to do lots of testing, lots of community surveillance and with good associated plans and infrastructure.

It's now done about 15,000 test per million and is doing 2,000 tests per day. Multiples of the UK and US levels, on a per capita basis. 300 cases, the great majority people who picked it up overseas or their direct contacts, confident that the great majority of infections are being picked up by the testing, declining new cases day by day - at least for now! No fatalities yet.

 

[Docb]

Interesting thoughts Eddy.

Was listening to a "death rate" specialist who pointed out that increased deaths due to CV-19 would not show when in a few years time the overall statistics are reviewed. It's macabre to think of it I know, but CV-19 is mostly (but not always) bringing forward the deaths of people who were going to die in the relatively near future anyway. There was also a report that obese people were disproportionately represented amongst those who had died with the infection. Nothing has been made of that, I suspect because it would be politically inconvenient.

As for BJ &co following expert advice, you are well aware that the trend in politics is you never start on a course of action until you find somebody to blame if it all goes wrong.

 

[Eddy Edson]

As for BJ &co following expert advice, you are well aware that the trend in politics is you never start on a course of action until you find somebody to blame if it all goes wrong.

Sure, but I can also imagine people who gave poor medical advice blaming everything on the politicians ...

 

[Docb]

Of course Eddy, winning the blame game is far more important than dealing with the virus.....

 

[ColinUK]

There’s a huge disparity on testing rates country to country so the infection numbers and mortality rates are not comparable.
What is crystal clear is that this virus is transmitted by touch far easier than by airborne transmission (if it was successful at being transmitted in an aerosolised form then infection rates would be far greater than they currently are).
Social distancing and lockdown tactics, if nothing else, makes everyone more aware of their own personal responsibility in stopping this spread. It does more than that but even if it didn’t then it would still be a good thing.

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

Spotted this over coffee this morning:

OK, this is a really complicated chart - but it shows that in the UK, if we try a bit harder we can keep more people alive.

The chart shows lots of countries from the day the outbreak got going. The UK is doing better than Spain, Italy USA etc, but not quite as well as Norway or Sweden. But we are not doing nearly as well as Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore - countries where they obey the social distancing rules and where there has been more testing. This is what we need to do - stay home, do not mix in groups.

...The scale on this chart is a log scale, that means everything is actually going up faster than it looks, they use a log scale so it fits on the paper.

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

As for masks... I still believe that they are significantly more effective at stopping individuals spreading the virus than they are at stopping individuals contracting the virus (unless like NHS workers, you are constantly in close contact to infected people).

My feeling is that, just like in the Cabinet - where multiple people rapidly fell ill in quick succession having been working together asymptomatically - the surface transmission is happening in supermarkets, via street furniture (eg pelican crossings) and other shared spaces from people who don’t know they are about to develop symptoms in a few days.

If everyone wears masks, those droplets get caught, and fewer surfaces become infected vectors I guess?

But... not enough masks. So I am choosing not to wear one.

Handwashing and careful social distancing seem more important to me right now.

 

[Eddy Edson]

Spotted this over coffee this morning:

OK, this is a really complicated chart - but it shows that in the UK, if we try a bit harder we can keep more people alive.

The chart shows lots of countries from the day the outbreak got going. The UK is doing better than Spain, Italy USA etc, but not quite as well as Norway or Sweden. But we are not doing nearly as well as Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore - countries where they obey the social distancing rules and where there has been more testing. This is what we need to do - stay home, do not mix in groups.

...The scale on this chart is a log scale, that means everything is actually going up faster than it looks, they use a log scale so it fits on the paper.

View attachment 13775

That's the chart @jburnmurdoch at the FT is maintaining, available for free viewing: https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Good on them for doing it but the reported cases metric it uses is very iffy as a proxy for actual infections. For countries doing lots & lots of testing, like Oz, Germany, South Korea etc it's probably pretty good. For somewhere like the UK, way behind on testing, actual infections are likely to be 5X+ the reported numbers, probably.

You can back-of-envelope that like so: Actual COVID-related fatalities are probably reported quite accurately, and before a health system gets overwhelmed the CFR seems to be somewhere in the 0.25% - 1.4% range, according to the latest research. Pick 1%; then actual infections should be on the order of 100X fatalities. For the UK, that comes to ~130K, rather than the ~20K reported.

For actual infections, the UK line on the chart would be much higher and steeper, no doubt.

But of course the point about working hard to flatten it is completely correct.

 

[Docb]

Mike, the thing about masks is that they help a bit under some circumstances but in order to help a lot they have to be treated as part of a system. Masks are uncomfortable to wear if worn for a long time and if you wear one you will, often without realising it, be touching it to adjust it. This transfers the virus to hands and from there it can go anywhere. So if you wear a mask good practice would be to wear gloves and change them regularly. Also, if you are infected then a used mask would be a concentrated source of the virus and would have to be dealt with as such. There is a bit more to masking up to avoid contamination spread than taking a bit of cloth and hanging it from the ears with bits of ribbon.

Not saying masks are a bad thing or a complete waste of time, but we need to get out of the minds of people that somehow wearing a mask is a way of avoiding infection or passing an infection on. Might help a bit with a trained and disciplined user but otherwise it will not do much.

Wholeheartedly agree with your last comment.

 

[Eddy Edson]

The common advice against masks is looking increasingly thin & no surprise if that gets reversed soon.

This will become a thing everywhere:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1244559997775892480

The virologists & epidemiologists I follow on twitter almost all say that everybody should wear masks, if they can.

 

[Robin]

I think masks can lull people into a false sense of security. I went to a supermarket this morning, and the only people who weren’t observing the 2metre distance were three shop assistants wearing masks, who were standing in a corner close together having a good gossip.

 

[Eddy Edson]

This will become a thing everywhere:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1244559997775892480

The virologists & epidemiologists I follow on twitter almost all say that everybody should wear masks, if they can.

And this is getting nods of approval: https://medium.com/@Cancerwarrior/c...here-is-new-scientific-rationale-280e08ceee71

The official recommendation in the United States (and other Western countries) that the public should not wear face masks was motivated by the need to save respirator masks for health care workers. There is no scientific support for the statement that masks worn by non-professionals are “not effective”. In contrary, in view of the stated goal to “flatten the curve”, any additional, however partial reduction of transmission would be welcome — even that afforded by the simple surgical masks or home-made (DIY) masks (which would not exacerbate the supply problem). The latest biological findings on SARS-Cov-2 viral entry into human tissue and sneeze/cough-droplet ballistics suggest that the major transmission mechanism is not via the fine aerosols but large droplets, and thus, warrant the wearing of surgical masks by everyone.

 

[ColinUK]

What’s the point of forcing people to wear sub medical grade masks if they’re not being taught how to fit them properly, not being taught how to take them off properly, and if they’re completely ineffectual against viruses?