Will we reach herd immunity for the new coronavirus?

[Northerner]

The Office for National Statistics Covid infection survey estimates that, either through vaccination or infection, an extraordinary 94% of adults now have antibodies to Sars-CoV-2.

So why are cases increasing and why does vaccine star Prof Sir Andrew Pollard say herd immunity for Covid-19 is “mythical”?

The reproduction number “R” is the average number of people infected by someone infected with Sars-CoV-2. If everyone in the population were susceptible, as in the start of an epidemic, this is labelled R0 (the basic reproduction number). For “vanilla” Sars-CoV-2, R0 was about three; with the Delta variant, it is about seven.

Suppose that among these seven people who would – on average – be infected, six were immune, the virus would only get passed on to one new person and the epidemic would stop growing. In this scenario, R would be effectively one. So, in theory, when 1 – 1/R0 of the population are immune, we reach herd immunity, which for Sars-CoV-2 is 6/7 = 86% of the population.

Will we reach herd immunity for the new coronavirus? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

It appears unlikely, but we should try to get as close as possible

www.theguardian.com

Well explained 🙂

 

[Eddy Edson]

Is there any reason for assuming that the next generation of vaccines will deffinitely not confer sterilising immunity?

 

[mikeyB]

Herd immunity is a myth with Covid, because there is one part of the population not immunised and not necessarily protected by previous infection with a new variant. That’s kids and adolescents. And there is evidence that immunity is better conferred by vaccination, not infection. (But only if you look for persisting antibodies)