WHO: Coronavirus vs flu

[Eddy Edson]

Summary of current state of knowledge in latest WHO daily update: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

(Not pasting the text here because it's always wonky when I paste from a pdf.)

Nothing much new vs previous stuff from WHO but always best to get info from actual knowledgeable experts rather then eg newspapers etc.

- Similar symptoms and transmission routes.
- Flu can spread faster.
- Pre-symptomatic transmission not so common with corona.
- Higher transmission rate, maybe, for corona - but very situation specific & broad-brush comparison not very meaningful.
- Flu: children major vector. Corona: not much; kids getting infected from adults much more common.
- Corona: Greater proportion of severe & critical infections.
- Corona: Versus flu, not so bad for kids, pregnant women.
- Mortality: Appears higher for corona but access to appropriate medical care the most important determinant.

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[atoll]

50-70 % attack rate,50% of cases over 3 weeks,95% over 9 weeks 1%CFR..15%serous health issues 5% critical,5000 beds,no wonder people are buying bog roll

 

[Eddy Edson]

50-70 % attack rate,50% of cases over 3 weeks,95% over 9 weeks 1%CFR..15%serous health issues 5% critical,5000 beds,no wonder people are buying bog roll

I was worried, but my local supermarket had plenty of bog roll just now. End times delayed!

American Hospital Association "buest guess" from the other day:




Still puzzled by dissonances: Attack rate in Hubei currently around 0.1% and levelling out; China as a whole 0.01% and flat. Korea I think is developing in a similar fashion.

Why can't the rest of the world do as well? I'd really like to see this and whatever trade-offs are involved spelled out.

It's not a too-late genie-out-of-the-bottle situation, as far as I can see. It spread all over China before anybody really figured out what was going on, and it's been brought to a halt. Again, similar picture seems to be developing in Korea.