What do we know about the new ‘worst ever’ Covid variant?

[Northerner]

What is the new variant and why is it a concern?​

Scientists have detected a new Covid-19 variant called B.1.1.529 and are working to understand its potential implications. About 100 confirmed cases have been identified in South Africa, Hong Kong and Botswana.

B.1.1.529 has a very unusual constellation of mutations, which are worrying because they could help it evade the body’s immune response and make it more transmissible, scientists have said. Any new variant that is able to evade vaccines or spread faster than the now-dominant Delta variant may pose a significant threat as the world emerges from the pandemic.

Dr Susan Hopkins, the chief medical adviser to the UK Health Security Agency, said the R value, or effective reproduction number, of the B.1.1.529 variant in the South African province of Gauteng, where it was first found, was now 2 – a level of transmission not recorded since the beginning of the pandemic, before restrictions began to be imposed. For an R of anything above 1, an epidemic will grow exponentially.

What do we know about the new ‘worst ever’ Covid variant?

UK places South Africa on red travel list over B.1.1.529 variant picked up by scientists in country

www.theguardian.com

 

[nonethewiser]

No end to it is there, will life ever get back to normal.

 

[Inka]

No end to it is there, will life ever get back to normal.

Exactly my thought. Just when you think we’re moving forward, back we go again. I’d think the only answer is to shut down international travel for months.

 

[Inka]

I think such an investigation would be hard to do @Amity Island

 

[Lily123]

If this new variant can evade vacines that’s worrying

 

[Inka]

In good old western tradition, we are very quick to blame others, it's been that way for as long as I can remember. Someone walks into a lamppost....who put it there? Where there's blame there's a claim.

2020 economies crashed, businesses closed, schools closed, people die....no mention of who's to blame. Where's the 24hr blame campaign? Vanished.....

Because getting evidence would be very hard, and sometimes governments need to balance other risks and other needs. There’s plenty of unofficial blame out there, but official blame is different.

 

[Lily123]

Lockdowns are a pain especially as my BG was unpredictable during lockdown.Hopefully this variant can be stopped before it affects too many people

 

[Bruce Stephens]

If this new variant can evade vacines that’s worrying

The vaccines guy on this morning's Today program didn't think that was likely. (I've not seen anyone else think it's likely either.) His argument was that all the mutations in the spike protein were things seen in other variants (or very like them). Maybe the monoclonal antibody treatments won't work so well, but the antibodies created in response to vaccination ought to be fairly varied.

On the optimistic side, maybe it'll spread really easily but be much milder. Or (I suspect most likely) it'll spread a bit faster, and the vaccines won't be quite as effective, and it'll be about as bad as the delta variant when you catch it. (Or, also possible, it just looks like it spreads faster because there weren't many infections in SA at the time, and in reality it won't outcompete delta at all.)

 

[Lily123]

The vaccines guy on this morning's Today program didn't think that was likely. (I've not seen anyone else think it's likely either.) His argument was that all the mutations in the spike protein were things seen in other variants (or very like them). Maybe the monoclonal antibody treatments won't work so well, but the antibodies created in response to vaccination ought to be fairly varied.

On the optimistic side, maybe it'll spread really easily but be much milder. Or (I suspect most likely) it'll spread a bit faster, and the vaccines won't be quite as effective, and it'll be about as bad as the delta variant when you catch it. (Or, also possible, it just looks like it spreads faster because there weren't many infections in SA at the time, and in reality it won't outcompete delta at all.)

It’s good that it isn’t likely and on the optimistic side you’re right that it may not be a bad

 

[Northerner]

On the optimistic side, maybe it'll spread really easily but be much milder. Or (I suspect most likely) it'll spread a bit faster, and the vaccines won't be quite as effective, and it'll be about as bad as the delta variant when you catch it. (Or, also possible, it just looks like it spreads faster because there weren't many infections in SA at the time, and in reality it won't outcompete delta at all.)

One of the experts on BBC News spoke about a similar coronavirus that has been around for over 100 years that initially caused many deaths, but is now associated with the virus responsible for the common cold. He said that now, since these viruses have been circulating for so long, we start gaining some immunity from them from a very early age - as a consequence, by the time people reach old age they are less vulnerable to its effects. The elderly have, however, no built-up immunity to the current virus, hence its devastating effect. Hopefully, thanks to the vaccines and naturally-acquired immunity, the current virus will become less harmful more rapidly 🙂

Q&A: Why history suggests Covid-19 is here to stay

He says that the foothold of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the human population today means it is likely to follow a similar pattern and become a continuously circulating, or ‘endemic’ virus, joining four other human coronaviruses that infect people with common cold symptoms.

ec.europa.eu

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

but nobody challenging or looking to the high chance of it coming from lab experiments into making viruses worse.

I don’t think that’s likely myself - though there are people still working on it, and publishing papers.

There have been a variety of studies, research and WHO-Covened Global Study of Origins of SARS-CoV-2:China

You might find the references in this rapid response interesting

The covid-19 lab leak hypothesis: did the media fall victim to a misinformation campaign?

The theory that SARS-CoV-2 may have originated in a lab was considered a debunked conspiracy theory, but some experts are revisiting it amid calls for a new, more thorough investigation. Paul Thacker explains the dramatic U turn and the role of contemporary science journalism For most of 2020...

www.bmj.com

“We draw your attention to a crucial, peer-reviewed paper: ‘The origins of SARS-CoV-2: A critical review’ (2). This paper explores evidence for both a zoonotic origin and a laboratory origin of SARS-CoV-2. It concludes: ‘There is currently no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a laboratory origin’ (2).”

“The authors also emphasise that SARS-CoV-2 contains no genetic markers pertaining to any prior laboratory experimentation (5), nor does any evidence exist of the presence of SARS-CoV-2, or a SARS-CoV-2 precursor, in the WIV (2). There is, however, emerging evidence (currently in pre-print form) to show sequences very similar (only one or two amino acids in difference) to early strains of SARS-CoV-2 circulating in bat populations (6) This not only supports a zoonotic origin hypothesis, but also highlights the very real threat of future pandemics. After all, 70% of all emerging infectious diseases have zoonotic origins (7), including every prior coronavirus (2)”

 

[Leadinglights]

They are thinking the new variant is mutation of the original virus and as the vaccine was developed from that there is every chance it will be effective.

 

[Felinia]

My friend and I went out for lunch yesterday as we have decided "que sera sera". In a few weeks time when more is known we might think differently, but in the meantime are getting on with life. Our Christmas dinner is still on, and the family still coming for Christmas. We are triple jabbed, and always wear our masks (we never stopped).

 

[Bruce Stephens]

One of the experts on BBC News spoke about a similar coronavirus that has been around for over 100 years that initially caused many deaths, but is now associated with the virus responsible for the common cold.

There's a hypothesis that the Russian flu in ~1880 was a coronavirus which did this, but I think no samples have been recovered (unlike with the 1918 flu) so it's not known.

But yes, there's a hypothesis that this coronavirus will eventually become the 5th common cold-producing coronavirus. Originally I doubted it because this one feels nastier even to children, but maybe if babies are born from women who have immunity then it really might end up somewhat similar. And yes, this one will still end up killing some older people, but as someone has suggested maybe some proportion of "pneumonia" deaths also involve coronavirus cold viruses; it's not like anyone checks.

We have the big advantage that we can speed this process up. We just need everyone to get vaccinated.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

B.1.1.529 has a very unusual constellation of mutations, which are worrying because they could help it evade the body’s immune response and make it more transmissible, scientists have said. Any new variant that is able to evade vaccines or spread faster than the now-dominant Delta variant may pose a significant threat as the world emerges from the pandemic.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-836/ discusses the variant.

(Spoiler alert: we don't know a whole lot. If you're worried and you're not vaccinated, get vaccinated.)

 

[Eddy Edson]

(Spoiler alert: we don't know a whole lot. If you're worried and you're not vaccinated, get vaccinated.)

Yeah I think the experts are saying it's too soon to know anything much.

But Trevor Bedford has some interesting-looking speculation:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1466076761427304453

 

[Bruce Stephens]

We do however know at least one thing, that the official story of it coming from a bat at a market in Wuhan is unlikely, because they didn't sell them nor do they live near Wuhan.

On the other hand there's a whole lot of viruses which infect humans which we think came from animals (some recently like SARS, Mers, HIV), and some with rather uncertain origins (even when we're pretty confident about the source animal we might not be sure about how they ended up in humans). And we've got not a single example of a new virus escaping from a lab. (A few have leaked, but they've been pretty much what was around originally.) And no actual virologists seem to think anyone has the ability to have engineered this one.

(Some of the scientists who signed the famous letter saying they wanted more research on the origins have since said what they wanted was more research on the probable zoonotic origins, and if they'd known the letter would be used to boost the lab-leak theory they'd never have signed it.)

 

[Bruce Stephens]

I don't understand your reply @Bruce Stephens are you saying you agree? or don't agree? that the virus didn't come from the market.

I think I agree with the consensus: the virus almost certainly came from some kind of bat, perhaps through some other animals. Maybe from the market, but maybe not. And likely not from the lab. And I'm not sure I care that much whether it came from the market or not.

We know that viruses infecting other animals can (sometimes) spill over, so we should study them more so we understand them better. And we know that bats have lots and lots of viruses.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Some more information (in a preprint) suggesting that there's an increased risk (compared to other variants) of reinfection in people who've previously recovered from infection. (No information on vaccinated people in this.)

Increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection associated with emergence of the Omicron variant in South Africa

Objective To examine whether SARS-CoV-2 reinfection risk has changed through time in South Africa, in the context of the emergence of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants Design Retrospective analysis of routine epidemiological surveillance data Setting Line list data on SARS-CoV-2 with...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[Bruce Stephens]

How many confirmed pcr cases of omicron were detected in August?
Were they able to pcr test for the omicron variant back in August?

I presume if they found omicron from samples in August they'd have mentioned it. By "reinfection", I (and they) mean infection with this variant following recovery from other variants (especially delta), and they think that's more common than it was with infection with delta following recovery from beta or other variants in SA.