It’s an intriguing question
@indio02
And I don’t think there are likely to be any clear or definitive answers, because so many factors involved.
A few snippets to add into your pondering…
HbA1c is a sort of long-term ‘proxy measure’ for general glucose concentrations. The more glucose that has been circulating during the lifespan of your red blood cells (approx 120 days) the more opportunity there is for some of them to be glycosylated. A one-way change that can be observed by measuring the amount of A1c among your haemoglobin (Hb). As old red blood cells get re-absorbed, and new ones are created to replace them, you get a sort of ‘rolling total’. Not all red blood cells last the full 120 days, so the figure is ‘weighted’ towards more recent weeks.
HbA1c has been measured for many years in clinical studies. And significant pieces of work (like DCCT and UKPDS) have found that diabetes complications are more common among people with higher HbA1c, particularly over longer timeframes, so targets encouraging lower Hba1cs were implemented to try to reduce risk. But again this is complicated, and multi-factorial, and two people might have an identical HbA1c, and the same diabetes duration, and one person may get complications while the other does not. This is biology and risk, not mathematics and formulae.
For T1s, the International Consensus on Time In Range suggested that people using CGM should aim for 70%+ of time between 4-10, and as losss possible, but no more than 4% of time below 4.0. So for T1s the guidance allows 25% of the day above 10mmol/L with the expectation that this would still give an on-target HbA1c of around 48mmol/mol.
Lastly, HbA1c is not a simple complications-busting trump card. Research shows that two people can get identical HbA1c. One from a gently meandering glucose profile mostly in range, with low glucose instability (number of wobbles), and glucose variation (extent of wobbles). The other from dramatically varying glucose profiles low to high and back again. They would have very different levels of risk. Low HbA1c offers less protection if the glucose instability and variation are high. Stability seems very helpful, John Walsh (Pumping Insulin) cited research that showed that staying steadily and consistently at 20mmol/L while not ideal, actually had less risk of retinopathy than someone lurching from say 2 to 15 and back again all day every day.
My basic understanding is that a few wobbles are OK, but in general the more gentle you can get your rises and falls of glucose to be, and within as narrow a range as you can, are likely to offer you lowest risk.
No idea if any of that will help!