Virta Health low-carb 5 year results: maybe about as good as Weight Watchers?

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Eddy Edson

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Relationship to Diabetes
Type 2
... although Weight Watchers has actual RCT's, where Virta just has an observational study "clinical trial" + anecdotes, so it's hard to tell.


Anyway, results seem consistent with standard long-term intensive weight interventions like the gold-standard Look AHEAD trial in terms of weight loss and associated clinical markers like HbA1c etc etc. No evidence here that "low carb" is inherently superior long term, in terms of weight loss or anything else.

Virta is a massively well-funded outgrowth of the historical Atkins millieu. Raised $370M+ in venture capital funding to date. Another illustration of how main-stream "low carb" is these days; it's not some kind of cool insurgent what-the-experts-won't-tell-you blah blah.

The business model is selling programs to insurers, health systems etc designed to reduce medication expenses. No insight into the extent to which these deals are really just sub-profitable trials at this point, but I guess the 5 year results might cause counterparties doing real diligence through the anecdote smoke and mirrors to ask whether it would be more cost effective just to subsidise Weight Watchers etc memberships.

EDIT: Just to highlight their 5 year T2D "remission" outcomes:

- Less than 50% of T2D patients stuck with the program for 5 years.
- Of these, 20% achieved remission.
- So max 10% of starting T2D's achieved remission at 5 years.

Because they've only published a PR, not the data, that sketch undoubtedly misses nuances, but fair to say it represents the maximum possibility. And it is correct to take the percentage in terms of the starting population inlcuding those who dropped out along the way - this "intention to treat" way of looking at things is the right way to do it, when looking at the approach as a therapy.

So not very impressive in absolute terms; seems broadly consistent with the reported 6% average weight loss; both broadly consistent with eg non-low-carb Look AHEAD.

So if it's a choice long-term: "low carb" or one of the new weight loss meds like semaglutide, tirzepatide etc? Hmmm, let me think about it for about 3 microseconds ...
 
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