Vaccines are working – but these charts show we’re right to delay reopening in England

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Northerner

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Two-thirds of the population in England are insufficiently protected against the Delta coronavirus variant, exclusive data analysis by the Guardian can reveal.

Despite promising signs that the vaccine is working – including record low hospital admissions in relation to the number of cases – this lack of immunity is critical to the government’s decision to further ease restrictions.

Boris Johnson is considering a four-week delay to the last stage of lockdown reopening, which would see theatres and nightclubs open and large gatherings such as weddings allowed.

While the vaccine rollout has been successful, two-thirds of the population in England are still not protected by vaccines against symptomatic infection from the Delta variant.

This is based on an analysis of who has been vaccinated, the number and type of doses they received, and the effectiveness of these vaccines against the Delta variant in the real world.

www.theguardian.com

Vaccines are working – but these charts show why England is delaying reopening

Vaccines are reducing Covid deaths but data shows parts of the country remain unprotected
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
That article is another disgraceful exercise in manipulating statistics to tell the story you've already concocted.
The following quote is the only thing you can trust from that article because it is a direct quote:-

Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said that while these figures showed the protection given against symptomatic Covid, the most important thing was severe disease. “Hospitalisations per case have plummeted. Vaccination is stopping severe disease. We don’t know vaccine protectiveness against the Delta variant for severe disease, but vaccines do protect more against severe disease. To me, it’s severe disease that really matters.”
 
@pm133 - Yeah but No but - how many cases of non severe Covid is acceptable 'in the wild' - cos the severe cases could presumably still be treated in the specific isolation hospitals well away from general healthcare so there's no cross contamination risks hence all the 5m (is it?) people on the current NHS waiting list for other things, can all be treated in the ordinary hospitals as per normal pre Covid.

Eh, Paul?
 
Government is damned if they do and damned if they don't. Face a tory rebellion if they don't, face a public backlash if they do and it goes south.

Personally, I am sick of lockdown and think we should fully open up and face up to it. But then I have had both vaccines so can say that from my ivory tower. Waiting for another 4 weeks to give others the maximum protection after a year of it and this being less harsh than previous lockdowns that put me in tier 4 over xmas, I can live with I guess. However, anymore extensions beyond the point where the majority, if not all, at risk people have had both vaccines, I can't support.

I think Teresa May summed it up nicely in parliament the other day. Not sure why she was unable to articulate other points so well when she was PM.

www.express.co.uk

Britons staggered as they agree with Theresa May's brilliant summary

THERESA MAY savaged Boris Johnson's travel restrictions as she insisted it is "incomprehensible" that freedoms are being withheld from Britons despite the huge number of vaccinations.
www.express.co.uk www.express.co.uk
 
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Missed announcement earlier, switched on Sky news before seen its another 4 week. Ticker on bottom of screen saying that Pfizer vaccine is 96% effective to stop hospitalisation from Delta variant, AZ its 92%, good to know having had both AZ doses.
 
Weddings and wakes can have more than 30 people but everything else canned for 4 weeks. Only bonus is the football is on and another 4 weeks working home guarantees being able to watch every game with the tele on mute whilst on teams meeting after teams meeting!
 
@BlueArmy - each to their own 🙂 been on Zoom Board Meeting earlier deciding to cancel the in-person AGM of a Ltd Co requiring the board plus 31 members to attend, and hold that on Zoom for the second year and on a Zoom meeting in the morning discussing future community activity of the health charity we're trustees of. I do think she is right about some things though - we're likely never gonna be 100% free of it for ever and yes, we likely do need to start mixing a bit more otherwise us old uns could all drop dead anyway from sheer boredom of not going anywhere or doing anything, in splendid isolation.
 
I read on another forum that the delay would have been avoided if the dithering Johnson government had stopped people flooding in from India weeks earlier. As the poster said what essential travel were they there f 7or. I would actually make the delay eight weeks and chase up those not coming for vaccination. A voluntary ride in a police car might help indecision. We will then have done everything we can!
 
TBH, personally I feel endangered by Terminal Ennui. I do try not to be - but it's just getting progressively worse.
 
Bruce Stephens said:
Is it likely that hospitalisations for other things would happen to match cases (lagged by 10 days)? Twice, once in the winter and again now?
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No but that's not really important though.
What's important is whether the NHS is starting to struggle to cope.

Yesterday there were under 1200 in hospital and under 120 in ICU in the whole of England. Just 10 people died.
The numbers in Scotland are about 10% of those figures as to be expected by population ratio.
 
pm133 said:
Yesterday there were under 1200 in hospital and under 120 in ICU in the whole of England.
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No question that right now there's no particular issue with hospital usage. (I think even in what were the hotspots like Bolton numbers are falling.)

The worry is that case numbers are rising fast (doubling every 7-14 days). Nobody thinks that'll cause similar hospitalisations as before (younger people are ending up in hospital, fewer of them and they're not needing to stay as long).

Even so, there's some modelling that suggests the peak will be high enough that there'll be a problem. Though the modellers also point out that there's huge uncertainty. Which is a big reason for the delay: collect more data about this Delta variant to improve confidence.

I think the government's just being really cautious because they very much don't want to have to go backwards. (For political reasons rather than anything else.)
 
Amity Island said:
The longer they delay, the increased chance another variant will come along.
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The quicker they reopen, the faster any new variant will spread.

Delay gives time for more people to be vaccinated while cases are just doubling each week or so. Most likely the vaccines will continue to be pretty effective for any new variants.

(I'm not sure where this saving of "thousands of lives" which ministers have used come from. I'd have thought even if hospital numbers rise a lot there wouldn't be that many deaths. But it's uncertain, I guess. Ventilator usage is increasing slightly which is obviously bad.)
 
Bruce Stephens said:
I think the government's just being really cautious because they very much don't want to have to go backwards. (For political reasons rather than anything else.)
Click to expand...

I agree that this is probably what is driving their decision making.
 
Bruce Stephens said:
The quicker they reopen, the faster any new variant will spread.

Delay gives time for more people to be vaccinated while cases are just doubling each week or so. Most likely the vaccines will continue to be pretty effective for any new variants.

(I'm not sure where this saving of "thousands of lives" which ministers have used come from. I'd have thought even if hospital numbers rise a lot there wouldn't be that many deaths. But it's uncertain, I guess. Ventilator usage is increasing slightly which is obviously bad.)
Click to expand...

The problem is that it's a balance.
People are avoidably dying of other things as a direct result of the delay.
Covid panicking has taken a very firm grip here.
 
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