US election - 538's interactive model

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Eddy Edson

Eddy Edson

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projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

If you're into it, 538 now let's you nerd out with their model. Pick the winner for a state and it adjusts its priors for all the others.
 
Eddy Edson said:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com

If you're into it, 538 now let's you nerd out with their model. Pick the winner for a state and it adjusts its priors for all the others.
Click to expand...
All comes down to Florida it seems 😱 Biden still might have the upper hand if Trump takes it, but only marginally 😱
 
Either that, or it could be a landslide for|Biden. Nobody knows. If it's a close loss for Trump. he won't accept the verdict anyway.
 
mikeyB said:
Either that, or it could be a landslide for|Biden. Nobody knows. If it's a close loss for Trump. he won't accept the verdict anyway.
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It's not his decision, though.

I have this picture of the eviction crew changing the locks and dumping all of his stuff on the White House lawn.
 
Please let there be a landslide, and the Senate! 🙂 It really is time Trump was taught a lesson, although he will never accept it, of course 😱 Then, let the criminal charges begin! 🙂 I watched his recent rally at The Villages - good grief, he really is the most appalling liar and totally dismissive of the 220k deaths and 70,000 new cases a day, as well as climate change :(
 
Northerner said:
Please let there be a landslide, and the Senate! 🙂 It really is time Trump was taught a lesson, although he will never accept it, of course 😱 Then, let the criminal charges begin! 🙂 I watched his recent rally at The Villages - good grief, he really is the most appalling liar and totally dismissive of the 220k deaths and 70,000 new cases a day, as well as climate change :(
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Yay! And if we could please have an upset in KY and see McConnell given the boot, that would be excellent, thanks.

I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but it's almost insulting the way he doesn't even really borher to disguise the fact that he's actually an evil alien lizard-person

1603701657112.png
 
Eddy Edson said:
Yay! And if we could please have an upset in KY and see McConnell given the boot, that would be excellent, thanks.

I'm not usually one for conspiracy theories, but it's almost insulting the way he doesn't even really borher to disguise the fact that he's actually an evil alien lizard-person

View attachment 15462
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He's the US equivalent of Michael Gove 😱
 
Just for fun, my prediction:

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Explore The Ways Trump Or Biden Could Win The Election

Choose whether President Trump or Joe Biden will win each state in the 2020 presidential election and we’ll recalculate whether they have a path to 270 electoral votes and what their chance is of winning the Electoral College.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com projects.fivethirtyeight.com


: fingers crossed :
 
So good places to watch for early reads on the outcome:

www.nytimes.com

Election Needles: President (Published 2020)

Modeling key battleground states.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The NYT's "needles" tracking the count in GA/FL/NC. If Biden wins any of these he's very likely to win the whole thing; Trump needs to win all three. Early votes will be counted quickly in these states and there will be enough data from the early counts to make good predictions.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict

Dave Wasserman,particularly on the count in Sumter County, Florida. There will be enough early data for a good read.If Trump is losing, it means he's losing FL as a whole, and the whole election.

Ignore most journalists - they're likely to be confused by the huge disparity between Democrats voting early & Republicans voting on the day, and the timing for when each state counts each type of vote.
 
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Blurrrg - ugly!
 
pm133 said:
Hard to see anything but a Trump win now.
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This seems to be about where we are now: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.co...,KY:1,IN:1,SC:1,FL:1,TX:1,OH:1,IA:1,MN:0,M1:0

Biden will in if he gets eg NV+WI+MI. That actually may be more likely than not: ahead in NV, and in WI/MIthe state totals will look a lot different when everything is counted - Biden expected to do well in the remaining votes.

Or he can win with PA+GA: similar comments as for WI/MI, although PA looking less likely now.

And so on.

But still ugly. Should be a landslide - what do these people use fr brains??
 
Eddy Edson said:
This seems to be about where we are now: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.co...,KY:1,IN:1,SC:1,FL:1,TX:1,OH:1,IA:1,MN:0,M1:0

Biden will in if he gets eg NV+WI+MI.
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If my arithmetic is correct that only gets Biden to 252. He'll need another 18 from somewhere.

In your post, you also said "Should be a landslide - what do these people use fr brains??" and in my opinion, this is why the left keep losing elections and referenda. Jumping on the moral high ground, repeated accusations of both a lack of education and racism/bigotry hardens the position those on the political right. We saw this with the Scottish Independence vote, Brexit and two General Elections in the UK in the last 6 years alone. Now it looks like it's happening again for the second time in 4 years in the US. It seems to me that the likes of Johnson and Trump are a backlash against political correctness, moral high grounding and a VERY strong feeling that people's real concerns are not being listened to/being belittled. Trump and Johnson are happy to fill that vacuum and will continue to do so until the left start learning this lesson.

Having said that, Biden might end up winning after all and this discussion becomes moot. 🙂
 
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pm133 said:
If my arithmetic is correct that only gets Biden to 252. He'll need another 18 from somewhere.
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He's got 238 on the map I posted, which I think is pretty solid (anyway, AZ has been called by some of the networks so I'm assuming they end up with Biden).

NV+MI+WI gives another 32. PA+GA gives 36.

If you screw on yr rose-coloured specs, you could say that the only state so far with a clear upset is FL, and Florida is always Florida, as they say.
 
Eddy Edson said:
He's got 238 on the map I posted, which I think is pretty solid (anyway, AZ has been called by some of the networks so I'm assuming they end up with Biden).

NV+MI+WI gives another 32. PA+GA gives 36.

If you screw on yr rose-coloured specs, you could say that the only state so far with a clear upset is FL, and Florida is always Florida, as they say.
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I was going with the BBC which had him on 220 when I looked last. If he's now at 238 with those states to declare then that's fair enough.

Not sure where you are going with the comment about rose-tinted glasses. I'd prefer Trump to be out of office but it's genuinely no concern of mine who wins that election. Just making a few observations.

The real upset is how badly out the pollsters and the left were in making their predictions about who would win. This has all the marks of those people living in an echo chamber and not listening to their opponents.
 
pm133 said:
I was going with the BBC which had him on 220 when I looked last. If he's now at 238 with those states to declare then that's fair enough.

Not sure where you are going with the comment about rose-tinted glasses. I'd prefer Trump to be out of office but it's genuinely no concern of mine who wins that election. Just making a few observations.

The real upset is how badly out the pollsters and the left were in making their predictions about who would win. This has all the marks of those people living in an echo chamber and not listening to their opponents.
Click to expand...

Those were my rose-coloured specs 🙂
 
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