UK experts fear up to 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter

[Northerner]

Britain must start “intense preparations” for a second wave of coronavirus that has the potential to kill as many as 120,000 hospital patients in a worst case scenario, experts have warned.

Senior doctors and scientists convened by the Academy of Medical Sciences said on Tuesday that, without urgent action, a resurgence of cases this winter could overwhelm the NHS when services are already stretched because of flu and other seasonal pressures.

The experts were commissioned by Sir Patrick Vallance, the government’s chief scientific adviser, to model a “reasonable worst case scenario” for Covid-19 this winter. Their report, which has been shared with ministers and local health authorities, calls for immediate efforts to prepare for a second wave.

Compiled by 37 experts, the report stresses the worst case scenario is not a prediction of what is likely to happen, but a description of how the outbreak may evolve if infections are allowed to surge and little is done to prepare the NHS and social care services.

UK experts fear up to 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter

Preparations to avoid second wave worst-case scenario in NHS hospitals ‘must start now’

www.theguardian.com

Let's hope we are better prepared.

 

[Docb]

The senior SAGE people have been warning about this all along and the suggestion that any immunity acquired from having been infected might well be short-lived does not help. Whilst the politicos were saying all was getting better, Whitty, Van Tam and others were saying that the epidemic was far from over.

I am reminded of the apocryphal story told at many a management course. An inspector goes to a school and is greeted by drug dealing at the gate. There are knife fights going on in the playground and when he gets inside he finds wrecked and empty classrooms. He eventually gets to the headmaster's study to find the head and ask what is going on. The secretary tells him that the head cannot see him because he is far too busy doing something really important, he is counting the dinner money.

It is a little disconcerting that them in charge find the big picture so difficult to contemplate that they faff about worrying about wearing masks in shops and why a bloke can get his beard trimmed when a woman cannot get her eyebrows done. We are in grave danger of heading into a second wave with the same clarity of vision that we headed into the first and we all know what happened there.

 

[grovesy]

From what I have seen all Global experts have been saying the same or similar things even from early on.

 

[Northerner]

From what I have seen all Global experts have been saying the same or similar things even from early on.

Doesn't look like some US states are bothering to wait until the winter... 😱

 

[atoll]

what amazes me is how these people can even contemplate getting brexit done at the same time!
not an ideal time to visit brazil,india,south africa or america to strike up those new trade deals and spitting in the eye of china.

i wonder what is the acceptable daily death rate to keep british bussiness running,and how you can justify sending kids to school now it is know that school age children have similar profiles as adults to asymptomatically spread ncov

 

[mikeyB]

There is no such thing as an acceptable daily death rate from Covid 19, it's a concept dear tp Boris and his puppetmaster, though. They'll only worry if the virus leaves the poor and BAME folk, and takes hold in closed environments like Eton.