The NHS funding shortfall: four futures

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“Health chiefs yesterday welcomed a £2.2 billion “down-payment” on the estimated £30 billion more the NHS will need by the end of the decade.” – The Times, 1 December 2014

“The five-year Forward View plan … warned of a looming £8bn funding shortfall by the end of the next parliament.” – The Guardian, 30 November 2014

The government has announced it will spend an extra £2 billion on the NHS next year ahead of Wednesday’s Autumn Statement.

Unsurprisingly that’s been welcomed by many within the health service, who’ve been pointing to a growing funding gap for some time now. The shortfall in the amount of money needed to provide the same services and maintain quality is expected to grow.

The size of the looming NHS ‘black hole’ depends on which paper you’re reading—the NHS in England will be either an estimated £8 billion short by 2020 according to the Guardian or £30 billion according to the Times.

There’s nothing contradictory about that—in fact, both figures come from the same place. The “Five Year Forward View” published by NHS leaders in October discussed four different scenarios for how much money the NHS would be short by 2020. An £8 billion gap is based on the most optimistic scenario, while £30 billion is the most pessimistic.

https://fullfact.org/article/health/nhs_funding_shortfall_eight_billion_thirty_billion-35909
 
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