Sage modelling warns of risk of ‘substantial’ Covid third wave

[Northerner]

New modelling for the government’s Sage committee of experts has highlighted the risk of a “substantial third wave” of infections and hospitalisations, casting doubt on whether the next stage of Boris Johnson’s Covid roadmap can go ahead as planned on 21 June.

Government sources suggested the outlook was now more pessimistic but stressed that a decision would be taken after assessing a few more days’ worth of data on the effect that rising infections are having on hospitalisations.

The prime minister is due to announce on Monday whether the lifting of the remaining restrictions – nicknamed “freedom day” by anti-lockdown Tory MPs – will have to be delayed.

Johnson is understood to be personally frustrated at the prospect of delaying the reopening, but a No 10 source said there were now clearly signs for concern in the data.

Sage modelling warns of risk of ‘substantial’ Covid third wave

Growing pessimism over 21 June reopening plan amid fears of surge in cases to rival January’s second wave

www.theguardian.com

 

[mikeyB]

Serves Johnson right, making predictions on “Freedom Day”. The problem is his ego, which he will have to swallow in the face of the data. Will he dare stick to June 21?

 

[Northerner]

Serves Johnson right, making predictions on “Freedom Day”. The problem is his ego, which he will have to swallow in the face of the data. Will he dare stick to June 21?

I think he will delay, or at least water it down - he'll probably lose less political capital from a delay of a couple of weeks than he would if he reopens and things go t*ts up 😱

 

[pm133]

Honestly, it would be nice if these modellers could just go away.
We already know what the problem is and how to solve it - double vaccinate everyone. These modellers are telling us absolutely nothing we don't already know. They are talking for the sake of talking now.

Virtually none of the infections, deaths or hospitalisations are affecting groups already doubly vaccinated.
There isn't another viable solution. The only question is whether we get on with our lives or continue to hold everything back until we doubly vaccinate a certain percentage of the population.

This obsession over case numbers and variants has to stop unless we start to see doubly vacinated people starting to be affected in large numbers.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

We already know what the problem is and how to solve it - double vaccinate everyone. These modellers are telling us absolutely nothing we don't already know. They are talking for the sake of talking now.

They're saying that as things are, it looks like quite a lot of people might become sick enough to end up in hospital. Which is stress on hospitals who'd much rather be trying to work on other problems. And obviously it's people who (for a few days, typically) can't work, can't be in school, etc.

So sure, it's in no way the same as the last wave (whatever number that was) in that not many people will die (most likely). But it won't be free.