Rise in UK Covid cases above 1,000 a day breached government target

[Northerner]

The rise above 1,000 daily confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the UK breaches the ceiling that the government’s own Joint Biosecurity Centre said was acceptable in May, it has emerged.

After the number of tested and confirmed cases rose to 1,062 in 24 hours at the weekend – the first time the daily total has exceeded 1,000 since late June – a senior public health expert said the escalation was “unacceptable, ineffective and dangerous”.

Prof Gabriel Scally, president of epidemiology and public health at the Royal Society of Medicine and a member of Independent Sage, said the government was failing to suppress the virus by its own standards.

“Something’s got to change, otherwise we are really in for an extraordinarily difficult time,” he said.

Rise in UK Covid cases above 1,000 a day breached government target

Exclusive: 1,000-case ceiling to avoid virus flare-ups was set by Joint Biosecurity Centre in May

www.theguardian.com

I was looking at the stats yesterday and we've gone from a 7-day average of around 550 per day a month ago to an average of around 860 a day now Of course, that doesn't come close to the 5000+ we had back in April 😱

 

[mikeyB]

The death rate is not following the infection rate, though.

1 or 2 per thousand should be well within the range that an effective test, trace and isolate can suppress outbreaks.

 

[Northerner]

The death rate is not following the infection rate, though.

Perhaps because the most vulnerable are already dead? 😱 The care home debacle and lack of community testing must have given a false impression of the likely death rate earlier on. Plus, of course more is known and there are some basic treatments 🙂

 

[Docb]

I'm guessing that the death rate is not following the infection rate because the infection is spreading amongst the younger element who have unlocked themselves but can largely cope with it and the vulnerable (what's left of them) are not mixing with that group.

 

[Northerner]

I read yesterday that the ONS estimate is that we actually have around 3700 new infections a day, so this 1000 limit is probably misleading.

 

[grovesy]

The Covid 19 app people at Kings College think the actual number is higher too!

 

[Robin]

The Kings study has the estimates here. I report daily on it, and follow it. Their estimated number of new daily cases is currently around 16-1700, but it has been around that figure for quite a while.

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

 

[grovesy]

The Kings study has the estimates here. I report daily on it, and follow it. Their estimated number of new daily cases is currently around 16-1700, but it has been around that figure for quite a while.

Latest Daily UK COVID-19 Data: Vaccines, Cases, Trends | ZOE

COVID infection & vaccination rates in the UK today, based on public data and reports from millions of users of the ZOE Health Study app

covid.joinzoe.com

I do too.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

I read yesterday that the ONS estimate is that we actually have around 3700 new infections a day, so this 1000 limit is probably misleading.

That's understood, so this target (if it is one) of 1000 confirmed cases a day is understood to mean somewhere around 3000 a day of (as the ONS puts it) people who would test positive. A lot of cases will be asymptomatic and won't live in Leicester (or similar northern place of interest) so won't get tested.

(So that presumably means 10 or 20 deaths a day caused by the infection.)

 

[mikeydt1]

the true figures may never be known now that they have also stopped testing in care homes.

case of make things look good for an excuse to get people out there along with getting kids back to school.

 

[Robin]

the true figures may never be known now that they have also stopped testing in care homes

When was that announced? I can’t find a link. I know they had to withdraw one brand of test kit because of safety issues, but there are other brands available. (Though this may have caused problems if any care home groups had signed an exclusive contract with that brand).

 

[Docb]

Caught something on "More or Less" this morning....

Somebody was suggesting that these headline figures are of limited value in trying to get a handle on the status of the epidemic simply because there is no randomness in the testing. If you, quite rightly, aim your testing at people who you think have it and you increase the number of tests then you will get more positive cases even if the epidemic is not accelerating.

His preference was to watch:

1. The rate of change. If the epidemic were spreading then the rate of detection would increase exponentially. The increases are there but not exponential.

2. The number of 999 and 111 calls from people suspecting they are infected. These have flat-lined for a while now.

3. The number of hospital admissions of people with a Covid infection. Again these have flat-lined for a while.

Not suggesting that the infection has gone away or that guards should be lowered but just pointing out that you need to be careful with the numbers and what you make of them.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

When was that announced?

It's a delay (at least for now): https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...n-care-homes-delayed-until-september-12041099

 

[Robin]

It's a delay (at least for now): https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...n-care-homes-delayed-until-september-12041099

That’s what I understood. According to the BBC, they are currently issuing 50,000 tests a day to care homes, but obviously that’s not enough. It was the statement in a post above that implied they'd stopped testing altogether I was taking issue with.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

It was the statement in a post above that implied they'd stopped testing altogether I was taking issue with.

I don't think it would be particularly shocking if they do decide not to go ahead with the promised regular tests of all staff and residents, but I agree they haven't announced that yet.

 

[Thebearcametoo]

That’s what I understood. According to the BBC, they are currently issuing 50,000 tests a day to care homes, but obviously that’s not enough. It was the statement in a post above that implied they'd stopped testing altogether I was taking issue with.
View attachment 15030

My mum’s in a Care UK home and they’ve had trouble getting tests to continue regular testing. They’re currently testing if someone is symptomatic or has been in contact with someone who is symptomatic though. (This week 2 staff members and 1 resident have had symptoms, still waiting on results)