'One big wave' – why the Covid-19 second wave may not exist

[Northerner]

The Covid-19 pandemic is currently unfolding in “one big wave” with no evidence that it follows seasonal variations common to influenza and other coronaviruses, such as the common cold, the World Health Organization has warned.

Amid continued debates over what constitutes a second wave, a resurgence or seasonal return of the disease, Margaret Harris, a WHO spokesperson, insisted that these discussions are not a helpful way to understand the spread of the disease.

“People are still thinking about seasons. What we all need to get our heads around is this is a new virus and this one is behaving differently,” Harris told a virtual briefing in Geneva, urging vigilance in applying measures to slow transmission that appears to be accelerated by mass gatherings.

She also warned against thinking in terms of virus waves, saying: “It’s going to be one big wave. It’s going to go up and down a bit. The best thing is to flatten it and turn it into just something lapping at your feet.”

'One big wave' – why the Covid-19 second wave may not exist

With no evidence of seasonal variations, the WHO warns the initial coronavirus pandemic is continuing and accelerating

www.theguardian.com

 

[grovesy]

She is not alone other experts have said this too!

 

[Docb]

I seem to remember Chris Whitty saying that he does not like talking about second waves in current circumstances regarding the current pattern as the first wave. A true second wave happens when you think you have it cracked with infections down to zero for a prolonged period and while you are rejoicing in your success, the whole thing starts over again.

It's yet another bit of shorthand that them in charge use because either they don't want to overburden people with accuracy or because it is a very simple way of looking at things and at a level they can understand. Take your choice.

 

[Eddy Edson]

A true second wave happens when you think you have it cracked with infections down to zero for a prolonged period and while you are rejoicing in your success, the whole thing starts over again.

Which is what's happened in Victoria, pretty much. Cases down to a handful per day but then mismanagement at one of the hotels used to quarantine international arrivees => the virus escaped via badly trained & managed security guards, maybe just one of them, and now it's all over big parts of Melbourne in the familiar cluster locations: aged care, meat processing plants, logistics centers, multi-generational low-income housing ... Everywhere else in Oz these clusters have been squelched pretty efficiently before they can balloon; not in Melbourne, unfortunately.

I get really sick of facile explanations just teeing off whatever emotion-based political priors people have; or blaming too-early relaxation; or population non-compliance. All of that is either irrelevant or secondary in this case. The real issue is organisational - structures, which bods in which roles, execution. The state governance and bureaucracy has been working flat out since the start of the pandemic, but unfortunately not working well enough, as an organisational whole.

For me it's depressingly similar to more than a few start-up companies I've known: committed bright management with not quite enough experience working harder & harder at doing the wrong things while they drive their company into a wall.

 

[trophywench]

I'd rather take me chances with accuracy meself - so what if that makes it depressing news? Never stopped em reporting that before for the last I'll say 60 odd years as I doubt I'd have taken much notice of what the News said when I was little, except learning early on that I had to sit down and shut up whilst parents were listening to it.

 

[Northerner]

It's unsurprising really. Back in February/March there were only a few cases in the UK (that we knew of), and now the situation is not dissimilar with lockdown measures lifted considerably - with large parts of the population behaving as they did prior to lockdown just one or two cases can spread in the same way as it did before, although perhaps not to the same degree.