Lockdown!

[Eddy Edson]

So the filthy virus finally made it through the mist-walls protecting Brigadoon (ie Adelaide) & we're now in a 6 day extreme "circuit breaker" lockdown - everything shut except for basic food & essential services, no leaving the house except for shopping once a day, no takeaway ... etc etc etc.

There goes my goal of averaging 12.5K steps per day for the year - and I was on track! I'll have to do some strength training - blah boring.

What happened? Tired old story - a returnee from the UK infected quarantine hotel staff, interestingly it looks like via fomite transmission. The staff were immigrants working mutliple jobs & living with their very large extended family. And so on. So ~20 people in that family group infected.

Amazing contact tracing effort - 5,000+ contacts identified out to the *5th generation* and subject to home isolation orders with daily checks.

From this effort, just *2* additional cases identified so far. So why the angst? Apparently it's a very fast incubation (hence the 6 day circuit-braker), low symptom strain, and on the other hand, everybody really wants to get back to having no virus at all. So significant risk of it getting out of control if we don't go hard & fast, but with good prospects of killing it off completely if we do.

All science/medical driven, under the law, with detailed clear messaging and with the govt there to write cheques and grit their teeth. No halting half-measures, no compromises with business interests, no wishing&hoping&praying. I think people will be on board.

 

[Inka]

Such a contrast to the U.K. in so many ways. That’s the way to do it - get in fast and be efficient and thorough.

 

[mikeydt1]

here you go eddy now your famous for 5 minuets -

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...fter-cluster-of-22-coronavirus-cases-12135464

also mentions Japan and South Korea not heard anything about them for ages, seems they are also battling with the virus.

 

[Ljc]

Such a contrast to the U.K. in so many ways. That’s the way to do it - get in fast and be efficient and thorough.

I agree

 

[Vonny]

That's the way to do it @Eddy Edson and you'll be back to your impressive 12.5k per day before you know it

 

[Eddy Edson]

A bit surreal ... On the first day of this extreme lock-down, *zero* new cases detected despite record testing. Though there'll probably be more, if only from people in quarantine currently incubating. Anyway, I'd rather be somewhere which overreacts, versus somewhere which is trying to "live with it".

Meanwhile, you can't vape while wearing a mask. Life can be very cruel.

 

[Eddy Edson]

So more surrealism ... the lockdown is now being lifted after the contact tracers worked out that somebody lied.

Initial scare: he said he'd only quickly visited the pizza parlour where he got infected from a known case, to pick up a pizza. So the infection control team got worried that it might be a really fast-spreading virus strain. But then with mpre investigation they found that the guy had actually been working in the pizza parlour, with extended contact with the known case. So not as scary and no need for lockdown.

As you might imagine, 1.8M people are unhappy with this guy ...

 

[pm133]

Anyway, I'd rather be somewhere which overreacts, versus somewhere which is trying to "live with it".

Are you retired or an employee with your salary and/or job protected?

 

[Eddy Edson]

Are you retired or an employee with your salary and/or job protected?

Contractor/consultant, self-employed, work from home office.

But in general, there's reasonably good salary protection here for pandemic-related disruptions.

And also, my main point really is that the experience here has been short actions to get rid of outbreaks and go virus-free. Means you have to keep the borders closed but for most of the year we've had no virus & normal living. If you need a short-term lockdown every now then to sustain that, I'm all for it.

 

[pm133]

Contractor/consultant, self-employed, work from home office.

But in general, there's reasonably good salary protection here for pandemic-related disruptions.

And also, my main point really is that the experience here has been short actions to get rid of outbreaks and go virus-free. Means you have to keep the borders closed but for most of the year we've had no virus & normal living. If you need a short-term lockdown every now then to sustain that, I'm all for it.

We don't have that level of income protection here for the self employed or contractors.
Lockdowns are proving a disaster here financially for millions of people in the UK who are not employees.
It seems that the strongest supporters of lockdown are those who are retired or those who know their jobs are not at immediate risk - especially those in the public sector.

There's an awful lot of moralising in the UK and a total lack of understanding and compassion from people who are not facing financial ruin.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

We don't have that level of income protection here for the self employed or contractors.
Lockdowns are proving a disaster here financially for millions of people in the UK who are not employees.

So let's fix that.

Lockdowns aren't the problem for most industries: it's the virus, and our reactions to it. (In some cases exaggerated by the media and by politicians, sure.)

And there are particular things being restricted that seem a bit questionable to me, like hairdressing and non-essential shops (are they really much of a problem?).

But overall I think we'd do better by doing what the government claims to be doing (trying to reduce prevalence, breaking chains of transmission, etc.), but doing it more competently.

And trying to balance the response against the economy seems just confused: our current lockdown would have been shorter, cost less, and been more effective had it been a bit earlier, overlapping the school break. Trying to balance against the economy ends up hurting the economy even more.

 

[pm133]

So let's fix that.

Lockdowns aren't the problem for most industries: it's the virus, and our reactions to it. (In some cases exaggerated by the media and by politicians, sure.)

And there are particular things being restricted that seem a bit questionable to me, like hairdressing and non-essential shops (are they really much of a problem?).

But overall I think we'd do better by doing what the government claims to be doing (trying to reduce prevalence, breaking chains of transmission, etc.), but doing it more competently.

And trying to balance the response against the economy seems just confused: our current lockdown would have been shorter, cost less, and been more effective had it been a bit earlier, overlapping the school break. Trying to balance against the economy ends up hurting the economy even more.

It cannot be fixed under any version of lockdown.

My wife's business is restricted and we are operating at 50% turnover at no fault of our own with no way out for us. Nobody is paying us the shortfall despite being forced to operate like this.
We, however are VERY fortunate. My mortgage was paid off this year and we have enough savings to get by for a long time. Most are not in that situation though. There are millions facing total financial ruin however who are not so fortunate.

For example, there's a local cinema here forced to close which has monthly outgoings of £20,000 because the bills still need to be paid. No way can a government cover that shortfall.

 

[Eddy Edson]

It cannot be fixed under any version of lockdown.

My wife's business is restricted and we are operating at 50% turnover at no fault of our own with no way out for us. Nobody is paying us the shortfall despite being forced to operate like this.
We, however are VERY fortunate. My mortgage was paid off this year and we have enough savings to get by for a long time. Most are not in that situation though. There are millions facing total financial ruin however who are not so fortunate.

For example, there's a local cinema here forced to close which has monthly outgoings of £20,000 because the bills still need to be paid. No way can a government cover that shortfall.

How much of those reductions would have happened anyway, without a formal lock-down, just via people self-mitigating? Real question, not trying to make a point.

 

[pm133]

How much of those reductions would have happened anyway, without a formal lock-down, just via people self-mitigating? Real question, not trying to make a point.

My wife runs a wool shop with a series of associated knitting and crochet clubs which run virtually every day throughout the week and the weekend.
Without formal restrictions, we'd be at 100% or more. Currently with enhanced restrictions, we are having to limit club numbers just now because of distancing requirements and are turning people away. All of our clubs are running at 50% or less because of this and our products sales are affected because most of our members buy from us directly.

Every pub, restaurant, cafe etc is facing the same problem.

 

[pm133]

Real question, not trying to make a point.

Don't worry. I have absolutely no problem with that. Happy to discuss anything - whether you're trying to make a point or not.

 

[everydayupsanddowns]

As you might imagine, 1.8M people are unhappy with this guy ...

Good grief Eddy... wouldn’t fancy being in his shoes 😱

 

[Eddy Edson]

Good grief Eddy... wouldn’t fancy being in his shoes 😱

Makes me hate people ... So the Premier announces a ridiculous *20 detective task force* to work out whether there's anything they can charge the guy with, joining the social media witch hunt. And from the other side there's commentary that an Indian immigrant teenager is being made a scapegoat for the gvt's failure to deal with insecure employment in marginalised populations, which is almost as ridiculous (in context).

All of this is being trumpeted about with *no actual knowledge of the guy or his motivations*. He's just a cartoon character in whatever tedious predictable little morality play is running through people's heads.

And now the "teenage immigrant Indian" invented for these morality plays turns out in fact to be a 36 year old Spaniard on a student visa. I don't know how *that* character fits in.

In reality, the guy could have been lying because afraid for his visa status, or because he is an evil fellow who delights in causing harm & distress, or it could be simply that he and the contact tracer couldn't uderstand each other, or ....

 

[pm133]

Makes me hate people ... So the Premier announces a ridiculous *20 detective task force* to work out whether there's anything they can charge the guy with, joining the social media witch hunt. And from the other side there's commentary that an Indian immigrant teenager is being made a scapegoat for the gvt's failure to deal with insecure employment in marginalised populations, which is almost as ridiculous (in context).

All of this is being trumpeted about with *no actual knowledge of the guy or his motivations*. He's just a cartoon character in whatever tedious predictable little morality play is running through people's heads.

And now the "teenage immigrant Indian" invented for these morality plays turns out in fact to be a 36 year old Spaniard on a student visa. I don't know how *that* character fits in.

In reality, the guy could have been lying because afraid for his visa status, or because he is an evil fellow who delights in causing harm & distress, or it could be simply that he and the contact tracer couldn't uderstand each other, or ....

The government have to take some responsibility for an act of headless chicken panicking.

 

[Eddy Edson]

The government have to take some responsibility for an act of headless chicken panicking.

It really wasn't. As the man says, "You'll know you did it right when everybody says you overreacted."

Or to look at it another way: Melbourne had a similar leak from a quarantine hotel, were slow to identify it (abut a month), adopted prgressive "proportionate responses", ended up in a hard lock down for 3 months and had 800+ deaths.

Or another: After a little interruption, here we're going back to zero-COVID with minimal restrictions and a pretty strong economy.

One of the lessons globally IMO is that you have to drive the thing down to zero or very close to zero. If you try to let it bubble along at low levels, at some point it will take off. To control it via TTI you need to double ring fence & supervise quarantine out to at least the 2nd degree contacts. At an avg of ~15 contacts per person if you have a very fast & efficient tracing, that's 200+ people to find and manage per infection. Nobody has the ability to manage more than a small number of new infections per day in the absence of restrictions. Witness now Germany, South Korea, Japan ...

 

[pm133]

It really wasn't. As the man says, "You'll know you did it right when everybody says you overreacted."

Or to look at it another way: Melbourne had a similar leak from a quarantine hotel, were slow to identify it (abut a month), adopted prgressive "proportionate responses", ended up in a hard lock down for 3 months and had 800+ deaths.

Or another: After a little interruption, here we're going back to zero-COVID with minimal restrictions and a pretty strong economy.

One of the lessons globally IMO is that you have to drive the thing down to zero or very close to zero. If you try to let it bubble along at low levels, at some point it will take off. To control it via TTI you need to double ring fence & supervise quarantine out to at least the 2nd degree contacts. At an avg of ~15 contacts per person if you have a very fast & efficient tracing, that's 200+ people to find and manage per infection. Nobody has the ability to manage more than a small number of new infections per day in the absence of restrictions. Witness now Germany, South Korea, Japan ...

I understand what you're saying here but the problem is that as scientists warmed at the start, once you enter lockdown, there is no exit until you have a cure or a vaccine. The question then becomes how long do you wait and how much economic damage are you prepared to allow your citizens to suffer. The problem you are almost certainly going to have is that you'll never escape the cycle of lockdown, freedom, lockdown, freedom etc. and that's not sustainable beyond the very short term.

The 800+ deaths is actually a very small number and that will be balanced to a very large degree by cancer patients etc who die because of covid restrictions. It's a numbers game in the end. People will die regardless of the approach taken.