How big are the blood-clot risks of the AstraZeneca jab?

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Northerner

Northerner

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Last Wednesday, the European Medicines Agency stated there was a plausible link between the Oxford/AstraZeneca (Vaxzevria) vaccine and rare types of blood clotting, which the MHRA estimates may happen in one in 100,000 young adults who get the vaccine.

It is challenging to think of such low risks: when we have to count the zeros, all intuition goes. So what else has roughly a one in 100,000 chance for a young adult? We could choose from the risk of dying when under general anaesthesia, or in a skydiving jump, or, on the positive side, winning the Lotto jackpot if you bought 450 tickets, or guessing the last five digits of someone’s mobile phone number.

Perhaps more pertinently, it’s roughly the risk of a young woman on the contraceptive pill having some form of blood clot in one week.

But think how you react to these risks: do they seem negligible or important? Risk is as much a matter of feeling as analysis. For the briefing last week, the Winton Centre (which DS chairs) constructed a comparison of benefits and risks in different age bands, balancing avoiding intensive care with Covid-19 against getting one of these specific clots. When there is not much virus circulating, these may be finely balanced in younger people, as they do not tend to get severely ill with Covid-19.

www.theguardian.com

How big are the blood-clot risks of the AstraZeneca jab? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

Young people have as much chance of winning the lottery as of getting serious blood clots from the AstraZeneca vaccine
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
I am very suspicious that my swollen lower legs and feet were as a result of the vaccine - in the last few days they have shrunk down considerably and are returning to a more normal colour, but if they had got much worse I would have been contacting the doctors rather than trying to help myself.
 
What is the risk of death from covid19 in the under 39's and what is the risk of death from the AZ vaccine blood clots in same age group?
 
Bruce Stephens said:
There's some charts on twitter. I think it's really hard to be precise since the serious side effects are so rare, but the chart suggests that people 20-29 (and presumably under) might reasonably prefer a different vaccine. (Presumably there's no sharp cutoff in the risks, but JCVI choosing 30 doesn't seem silly to me.)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1379808289278545922
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Hi Bruce,

Is there any data anywhere on combined risks of catching and dying from covid19 in those under 39? We have a 1 in 100,000 risk given by MHRA for risks of dying from the AZ vaccine. Trying to make a comparison.
 
Whichever way you look at it, it’s less than a one in a million chance of serious problems after the vaccine. It’s more risky getting out of bed, getting dressed, going downstairs and walking down to the shop for a pint of milk in a thunderstorm.

You cannot remove the risk of side effects from any vaccine or medication, you just have to make a sensible assessment of the risks. When the risks, in this case, are tiny, all sense appears to have disappeared. Look at this in this way - if everyone in the country had the AZ vaccine next week, more people will be killed or seriously injured on the roads than would get serious side effects from the AZ jab. Similar considerations of the chances of death or serious injury would lead to a ban on driving.
 
mikeyB said:
Whichever way you look at it, it’s less than a one in a million chance of serious problems after the vaccine. It’s more risky getting out of bed, getting dressed, going downstairs and walking down to the shop for a pint of milk in a thunderstorm.

You cannot remove the risk of side effects from any vaccine or medication, you just have to make a sensible assessment of the risks. When the risks, in this case, are tiny, all sense appears to have disappeared. Look at this in this way - if everyone in the country had the AZ vaccine next week, more people will be killed or seriously injured on the roads than would get serious side effects from the AZ jab. Similar considerations of the chances of death or serious injury would lead to a ban on driving.
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Mikey B,

I can't understand the "my vaccine only works if you have yours" as being the reason for requiring passports to go to the pub.
 
Amity Island said:
Hi Bruce,

Is there any data anywhere on combined risks of catching and dying from covid19 in those under 39? We have a 1 in 100,000 risk given by MHRA for risks of dying from the AZ vaccine. Trying to make a comparison.
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Is the 1 in 100,000 figure fatality you quote taken from the Guardian article? If so, it is a risk of developing a clot, NOT dying from it. From the EU agency report, 18 were fatal, from a total in the 80s.
 
Robin said:
Is the 1 in 100,000 figure fatality you quote taken from the Guardian article? If so, it is a risk of developing a clot, NOT dying from it. From the EU agency report, 18 were fatal, from a total in the 80s.
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Thanks Robin for the correction,

So it's more likely to be 1 in a 1,000,000 fatality risk, from these cases of this rare blood clot.

In the youger population that would be about twice the risk of dying from covid19. See quote here.

"The second row of table 2 shows that three deaths from covid-19 have been recorded among over 7 million schoolchildren aged 5 to 14 (around 1 in 2.4 million)"

www.bmj.com

Use of “normal” risk to improve understanding of dangers of covid-19

Accumulating data on deaths from covid-19 show an association with age that closely matches the “normal” risk we all face. Explaining risk in this way could help people understand and manage their response, says David Spiegelhalter As covid-19 turns from a societal threat into a matter of risk...
www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
Amity Island said:
In the youger population that would be about twice the risk of dying from covid19.
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Other relevant things can easily vary by a factor of 2 either way in a short period of time, so thinking that one is about twice the risk of the other is just saying they're about the same (as far as we can tell) I think.
 
While we’re all trying to pick apart all these statistics, the only thing we are really worried about is our own survival, and that’s what drives our behaviour. I can’t change my risk of dying, but I can change my risk of dying from Covid 19.
 
I think, for anyone worried about the risk of clotting from the covid-19 vaccine(s), they should be more worried about going out their front door. Or even getting up out of bed. Or, probably, just going to bed in the first place!

Andy (haven't read the statistics involved but is winging it) HB
 
These stats put it into perspective for me;

‘Getting a clot from the AZN vaccine (general population): 1 in 250,000

Getting a clot from the AZN vaccine (under 30 years): 1 in 100,000

Getting a clot from the contraceptive pill: 1 in 2,000

Getting a clot from an airline flight: 1 in 1000

Getting a clot after major surgery: 3 in 100 (even with preventative treatment)’

And getting a clot doesn't mean dying from a clot.
 
Amigo said:
These stats put it into perspective for me;

‘Getting a clot from the AZN vaccine (general population): 1 in 250,000

Getting a clot from the AZN vaccine (under 30 years): 1 in 100,000

Getting a clot from the contraceptive pill: 1 in 2,000

Getting a clot from an airline flight: 1 in 1000

Getting a clot after major surgery: 3 in 100 (even with preventative treatment)’

And getting a clot doesn't mean dying from a clot.
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I always remember when I was in hospital and they wanted to give me an angiogram - the consultant said there was a 1 in 200 chance of permanent brain injury or death, which, I have to say, didn't sound great odds to me! 😱 1 in 250,000 sounds pretty safe to me 🙂 With so few cases it must be very difficult for the scientists to isolate any factors involved.
 
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