Have more than 100% of older people been vaccinated?

[Northerner]

Across the world, more than 2bn doses of Covid-19 vaccines have gone into arms, and on 2 June, the BBC headline “75% of UK adults have had [their] first vaccine jab” was based on an Office for National Statistics estimate of the UK population aged 18 or over in June 2019.

Underneath this encouraging headline statistic, things get a bit more complicated. Consider those aged between 75 and 79. NHS England reports 1,984,700 first vaccinations have been given to this age group, but this is over 40,000 more than the ONS population estimate of 1,940,686. So NHS England reports that more than 100% of people in this group have been vaccinated: Public Health Scotland also reports many age groups with 100% coverage.

So have some older people been able to fiddle more jabs? No. As people age, they move into older age groups and mortality rates improve. In June 2019, there were more people aged 73-74 than 78-79. Fast forward to June 2021 and the number in the 75-79 group has increased. Migration also affects these statistics.

Have more than 100% of older people been vaccinated? | David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters

To understand vaccine coverage, we need to know how many people there are

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