Flu coming back ...

[Eddy Edson]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1457238326415560706

But ...

When I think about the public health rationale for the ZeroCovid strategy in the era of effective vaccines and effective treatments, I do sometimes wonder whether the same rationale would also support a ZeroInfluenza strategy and oppose "living with influenza"? (9/9)

 

[mikeyB]

But in the UK it would seem there is no ZeroCovid rationale. Never has been. And we’ve been living with influenza for centuries, and influenza has been living with us.

You could, I suppose, impose the same restrictions as with Covid, with mass vaccinations following mask wearing and social distancing, but why bother? It’s fairly variable, but on average around 500,000 thousand deaths occur each year from all causes. The number of flu deaths is equally variable, but in the worst year in recent history was 47,500. Most years it is in the low thousands. You have to die of something, and we can’t wrap people in cotton wool to keep them alive forever. Life is risky once you get born.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

You could, I suppose, impose the same restrictions as with Covid, with mass vaccinations following mask wearing and social distancing, but why bother?

Maybe some of the zeroCovid proponents have argued for that, but mostly I've seen milder suggestions.

Maybe if people (in winter) wore masks in public when they had symptoms, and if we kept sanitiser for people to use in shops, etc., (and people used them). How much might that kind of thing help reduce influenza deaths (and sickness)?

 

[nonethewiser]

Maybe some of the zeroCovid proponents have argued for that, but mostly I've seen milder suggestions.

Maybe if people (in winter) wore masks in public when they had symptoms, and if we kept sanitiser for people to use in shops, etc., (and people used them). How much might that kind of thing help reduce influenza deaths (and sickness)?

Agreed, simple measures to prevent spread. Alright it doesnt kill everyone but it can be damn nasty & bed bound you for days on end, this at big cost to country as a whole.

 

[Eddy Edson]

But in the UK it would seem there is no ZeroCovid rationale. Never has been. And we’ve been living with influenza for centuries, and influenza has been living with us.

You could, I suppose, impose the same restrictions as with Covid, with mass vaccinations following mask wearing and social distancing, but why bother? It’s fairly variable, but on average around 500,000 thousand deaths occur each year from all causes. The number of flu deaths is equally variable, but in the worst year in recent history was 47,500. Most years it is in the low thousands. You have to die of something, and we can’t wrap people in cotton wool to keep them alive forever. Life is risky once you get born.

My point of view: I live in the "zero Covid" part of Oz, states with total pop of ~10M, about the same as Sweden, which have recorded just 20 Covid deaths, 2 per million, a rate less than a thousandth of the UK's etc, and better than just about any country in the world. Most of those people actually contracted the thing overseas. We've also recorded exactly zero (I think) flu deaths since April 2020.

For the vast majority of the time we've had no restrictions except for border closures and some occupancy limits etc. (Though I found out on the weekend that you can't dance & drink at the same time here in Oz, which would have ruled out the weekend for me in my youth.)

Now we're a few weeks from opening up borders when we reach 80% fully vaxed for 16+ year olds, which will inevitably lead to a bunch of infections and deaths from both Covid and flu. I have yet to hear an explanation for why we should do that now - instead of eg waiting and driving as hard as possible for 90%+ fully vaxxed and positioning our excellent TTI operation to sustain a zero Covid and (why not?) zero flu strategy, before opening - which doesn't sound like Dr Strangelove.

 

[mikeyB]

You forgot to add that in Australia there have been no cases of measles so far this year, and even those few cases last year were picked up out of the country. 94% of Oz schoolkids are vaccinated - that's about 10% more than England.