Covid immunity declines steeply in care home residents in England – study

[Northerner]

Immunity declines steeply among care home residents in the months after Covid vaccination, a study has found, leading to calls for regular boosters for the most vulnerable.

The study of more than 15,000 care home residents found that protection against hospitalisation and death fell by one-third three to seven months after vaccination. The decline is far sharper than that seen in younger people, where immunity against infection wanes, but protection against severe illness appears to be robust.

“What we’re seeing is that they are at increased risk of infection, hospitalisation and death as immunity wanes, and those increases look quite big,” said Prof Laura Shallcross, a public health expert at University College London and author of the paper. “That’s not good news at all.

“It suggests annual boosters in residents may not be enough,” she added.

Covid immunity declines steeply in care home residents in England – study

Exclusive: calls for regular boosters for the vulnerable after a sharp drop in immunity three to seven months after jabs

www.theguardian.com

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Another story failing to make any mention of the million other reasons for mortality. No context given anywhere about all the other reasons people still die. Age, sex, deprivation, cold etc

That might be an interesting story but it's surely independent of this one. Resistance to this disease is apparently falling in a community that's known to be vulnerable to it, and we've got vaccines that can (temporarily) fix that.

So even if other things are more significant in the population as a whole, you're still going to give extra doses to this group of people.

(Also, as repeated Marmot reviews have outlined, the big thing to look at is inequality and this government's not going to be interested in that. And that's a long term set of problems whereas people over 70 dying of this infectious disease is (we hope) a shorter term problem with a short term resolution which makes it politically much more attractive.)

 

[grovesy]

Marmot gave a chat on Independent Sage broadcast recently, he some very interesting things to say.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Are the vaccines declining though? Is it more to do with the fact that they were never designed for the current strains?

Both, I think. (Well, it's not that the vaccines are declining. Rather, our immune system is doing what it normally does and contracting the number of antibodies in the blood (and presumably T cells).)

If we had just the original strain of the virus maybe we'd be OK without booster doses, but (as I understand the theory) with Omicron our antibodies (and presumably T-cells) aren't that good when we create them (a few days after infection from memory cells). But a boost of the vaccine can increase the number of antibodies in the blood (temporarily), and while they're not that good having lots of them helps enough.

 

[mikeyB]

We come across coronaviruses frequently in Britain. Most of them cause colds - approx 20% of colds are caused by coronavirus. You can acquire immunity to geographical viruses in your area, so after a year or two of moving to a new area you acquire further immunity to the new local viruses, getting colds every winter. Then you stop getting colds - I haven’t had one for about three years. This also shows that coronaviruses have always produced different strains. Covid 19 is no different.

This is not because I have antibodies swimming around in my blood. That is not a marker to determine immunity. It’s because my T-cells remember the virus and produce the antibodies to the cold virus. So they don’t appear before infection. That applies to all the cold viruses. And, indeed, measles, chicken pox, rubella, and tetanus. And Streptococcal Pneumonia, which is bacterial.

My older brother has just had Covid infection, though he is triple vaccinated. He was given an infusion of the two new antiviral drugs because he has CLL, but throughout he has only had minor symptoms- a bit of a sore throat, and mild headache but that’s it. I am confident that my vaccination status will protect me in the same way if I get infected.

So while the Omicron is still charging round the country, not making folk feeling too unwell, I see no reason why we should just forget about it and get back to normal, waiting for a nuclear annihilation. Spent most of my youth expecting that, and it never happened. That would clear Omicron for good, of course.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

So while the Omicron is still charging round the country, not making folk feeling too unwell,

It's making some people unwell. (Some are ending up in hospital, and some are dying, of course. Presumably some will be surviving but getting long term symptoms of various severities.)

SAGE suggests we've got 2-10 years before it reaches some kind of predictability, and the transition will be "highly dynamic and unpredictable". They also warn

Waves will be worse if detected late, vaccine effectiveness is low, or if stocks of effective vaccines are low or cannot be deployed quickly.​

So naturally the UK government thinks Omicron marks the end and we can stop worrying now.

Academics: Viral evolution scenarios, 10 February 2022

www.gov.uk

 

[trophywench]

Well it didn't happen then even though I've never yet gone to San Francisco nor even worn flowers in my hair despite getting married in church twice, though I did wear a 'flowery bonnet' as a bridesmaid, not sure if that counts? But anyway, no longer able to get flared jeans so may as well forget it. Told current husband if we get the warning we're about to be enveloped in a mushroom cloud, apparently that means we have 20 minutes, so what I was going to do for the next however long we each have. (Give you a clue - no point us both being miserable, is there!)