Covid: almost 2m more people in England will be asked to shield

[Northerner]

Nearly 2 million more people in England will be asked to shield and 800,000 of those offered priority vaccination as a result of new modelling that has identified adults at higher risk from Covid-19 because of a combination of health factors and their circumstances, including ethnicity and low income.

Until now the NHS identified those most at risk on the basis usually of a single underlying health condition, such as specific cancers, together with age. But a more sophisticated modelling tool developed by the University of Oxford has shown that the shielding list should nearly double, adding 1.7 million people on the basis of multiple risk factors.

Among the issues the model takes into account are ethnicity and postcode, which will give a measure of economic deprivation. There have been higher rates of death among people from black, ethnic minority and Asian communities and also people from poorer neighbourhoods with cramped housing. Body mass index will also be factored in, because obesity is known to increase the risk of severe illness.

Ethnicity and poverty are Covid risk factors, new Oxford modelling tool shows

Campaigners demand black, Asian and minority ethnic groups have higher priority for vaccination

www.theguardian.com

 

[Docb]

Listening to somebody on the radio this morning who actually knew what was going on, explained that all the analysis of the data has got to a point where a risk factor for an individual can be determined taking into account all the factors which might affect their outcome to a COVID infection. His comment was that the main use of the system would to categorise people in terms of priority for vaccination, getting away from the simple age criterion currently being used.

I wonder if the talk about "2m more people being asked to shield" has more to do with PR - got to keep it simple so the proles get the message - and is based on some ad mans interpretation of the position. Maybe somebody knows how that figure was arrived at.