Coronavirus committee.

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Docb

Docb

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If you want a good statement and appreciation of the things to consider with respect to the coronavirus, what is likely to happen in the UK and what is being done to prepare, then find the proceedings of the Parliamentary Coronavirus Planning committee and have a watch.

I am glad that those people are in charge rather than the clickbait chasing media newshounds.
 
Docb said:
If you want a good statement and appreciation of the things to consider with respect to the coronavirus, what is likely to happen in the UK and what is being done to prepare, then find the proceedings of the Parliamentary Coronavirus Planning committee and have a watch.

I am glad that those people are in charge rather than the clickbait chasing media newshounds.
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I watched it live. I thought it was very informative.
 
it is a pity they were not having these debates 7 weeks ago
 
Actually atoll, it was not a debate, that's the point. Also, much of what was being said could not have been said 7 weeks ago since much of it revolved around the analysis of the data coming from China which was not, and could not have been, available 7 weeks ago.
 
Docb said:
Actually atoll, it was not a debate, that's the point. Also, much of what was being said could not have been said 7 weeks ago since much of it revolved around the analysis of the data coming from China which was not, and could not have been, available 7 weeks ago.
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yes,it was a flip remark,and probably not helpful,as we are, where we are,and will have to deal with the problem as a herd.
posting links would be appreciated as well when referring to broadcasts if possible
 
I'd be interested to get more colour on the pessimism about being able to contain. China seems to be doing it for the moment - just *one* death ex-Hubei over the last three days, and a tiny handful of new cases; and in Hubei itself new case growth is slowing right down.

I mean, it's easy enough to think of reasons why that not correspond to realistic/desirable scenarios elsewhere or in the longer term, but it'd be good to see it spelled out.
 
Eddy Edson said:
I'd be interested to get more colour on the pessimism about being able to contain. China seems to be doing it for the moment - just *one* death ex-Hubei over the last three days, and a tiny handful of new cases; and in Hubei itself new case growth is slowing right down.

I mean, it's easy enough to think of reasons why that not correspond to realistic/desirable scenarios elsewhere or in the longer term, but it'd be good to see it spelled out.
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not an expert but they are able to study the strain of virus in current cases,and track it back in time,coming to the conclusion that the virus has been circulating undetected for 6-8 weeks or so in uk,usa,europe etc.
some explanation at 10.50
 
The link to the committee....

Parliamentlive.tv

Health and Social Care Committee
parliamentlive.tv parliamentlive.tv
 
I may be misreading things, but I see some tension between the UK containment-has-failed message and the WHO message, eg from Director-General's comments today: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/det...the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---5-march-2020

The experience of these countries and of China continues to demonstrate that this is not a one-way street.

This epidemic can be pushed back, but only with a collective, coordinated and comprehensive approach that engages the entire machinery of government.

...

Countries have been planning for scenarios like this for decades. Now is the time to act on those plans.

These are plans that start with leadership from the top, coordinating every part of government, not just the health ministry – security, diplomacy, finance, commerce, transport, trade, information and more – the whole government should be involved.

Activate your emergency plans through that whole-government approach.

Educate your public, so that people know what the symptoms are and know how to protect themselves and others.

Increase your testing capacity.

Get your hospitals ready.

Ensure essential supplies are available.

Train your health workers to identify cases, provide careful and compassionate treatment, and protect themselves from infection.

If countries act aggressively to find, isolate and treat cases, and to trace every contact, they can change the trajectory of this epidemic.

If we take the approach that there’s nothing we can do, that will quickly become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Maybe just talking at different scales. Eg, the D-G points to the apparent success of Sth Korea in containing clusters, but on the other hand they have the most cases outside China (5,000+ so far) so containment hasn't "worked" if you're thinking in terms of restricting to a handful.
 
Don't really think that there is a "containment has failed message". My understanding of what was said is that an epidemic of sorts is inevitable in UK. If the populace is sensible, using simple hygiene and staying home if they get it, then the severity of the epidemic and be controlled and the period of peak hospitalisation can be limited and coped with by "restructuring". Handled this way we can avoid the chaos which would result from wholesale shutting down of institutions. The Chief Medical officer was very persuasive in this area.
 
An excellent overview thread by virologist at Mt Sinai: https://threader.app/thread/1235331199805149185

An interesting slide:

1583448610425.png

South Korea has had way more intensive testing than other places => many more cases reported => but correspondingly low CFR ~0.6%.

It's pretty obvious that one of the big stories over the next couple of weeks will be a big ramp-up in cases in the US as testing expands from its current minimal level. Prepare for the headline clickbait!
 
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Yes, Eddy. One of the comments made by Whitty was that there was no serum test for coronavirus. This means that you cannot screen for the presence of the virus so there is no way of knowing how many are infected but are showing no symptoms. I also means that because testing is not simple, it is largely confined to confirming the virus in people who are clearly infected, and checking their contacts. The net effect is that the more you test, the more you find who are infected but not particularly ill. This means that the fraction of people who die then becomes less and the CFR reduces.

One of the consequential effects is that it makes modelling of the likely progress of the epidemic much more difficult.

If you want a view of state of affairs in UK then you could try this..

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A bit acerbic, but there is a measure of wisdom.
 
Docb said:
there is no way of knowing how many are infected but are showing no symptoms.
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From the WHO joint China working group from the other day, amplified by the group leader's comments, it seems that there are very few actually asymptomatic cases. Assuming this is true, it obviously has a big bearing on the policy issues, and it's a point that seems to be missed in a lot of the discussion, or maybe it's just not believed.

Anyway, it's the reason why WHO recommends leveraging the existing surveillance systems and focusing screening efforts on those presenting with atypical pneumonia symptoms, plus people who have had contact with others known to be infected.

Obviously, that's not the same issue as mild symptoms being overlooked or mistaken for something else.
 
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