BMJ interview with Chris Whitty

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Eddy Edson

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One thing:

As for the other end of the spectrum—which is, why can’t we just eradicate this virus?—that’s also impractical for a variety of reasons. There are reasons why we have, to date, only managed to eradicate one human disease—smallpox—with two or three others that have been just on the edge for a long time. It’s very, very difficult to do.

Fair enough, but it kind of elides the "eradication" vs "elimination" distinction.

It's certainly possible to eliminate the virus from a community. I live in such a community - no local cases for months in my state, SA. We have approx the same population as N. Ireland and over the whole course of the pandemic we've had about 500 cases (70%+ of them being international arrivals) and 4 deaths, figures which N. Ireland is exceeding every day. Victoria, which had a per capita new infection rate bigger than the UK's at the end of July, has now had 6 days without a new infection. Etc etc etc.

We have had to close borders to achieve this, but it has been achieved & there's no absolute reason why the UK couldn't do the same. Of course you could say that the trade-offs aren't worth it, but I haven't seen anything like a real effort to even work out what they would be, let alone a benefits/harms analysis. It just seems like a big blind spot.
 
One thing:

As for the other end of the spectrum—which is, why can’t we just eradicate this virus?—that’s also impractical for a variety of reasons. There are reasons why we have, to date, only managed to eradicate one human disease—smallpox—with two or three others that have been just on the edge for a long time. It’s very, very difficult to do.

Fair enough, but it kind of elides the "eradication" vs "elimination" distinction.

It's certainly possible to eliminate the virus from a community. I live in such a community - no local cases for months in my state, SA. We have approx the same population as N. Ireland and over the whole course of the pandemic we've had about 500 cases (70%+ of them being international arrivals) and 4 deaths, figures which N. Ireland is exceeding every day. Victoria, which had a per capita new infection rate bigger than the UK's at the end of July, has now had 6 days without a new infection. Etc etc etc.

We have had to close borders to achieve this, but it has been achieved & there's no absolute reason why the UK couldn't do the same. Of course you could say that the trade-offs aren't worth it, but I haven't seen anything like a real effort to even work out what they would be, let alone a benefits/harms analysis. It just seems like a big blind spot.
The politicians don't want to close borders!
 
The politicians don't want to close borders!

I guess nobody *wants* to. But the thing I don't get is that Whitty et al don't even seem to think of it as a possible tool in their technical tool-boxes, despite all the examples around the world of places eliminating the virus locally with closed borders as an important tool.
 
So, if the infection rate in Wales falls quicker than in England, should the Welsh government close the border to Wales (or vice versa)? Ditto Scotland? And the most porous "border" the airports? It would take a brave government to do that. Banning incoming flights from Europe or the US looks like a good plan at the moment, for sure, given the rising infection rates across Europe.
 
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