The PM has also (just to try to keep people guessing) indicated that people should be going back to work (as opposed to working at home) where that's safe. (I think the problem is town and city centre businesses.) So I wouldn't be surprised for the advice to change in that direction, though at present it's still to work from home where that is possible.
Such a change of government advice for the majority of people would be unsurprising anyone, even had it not already been suggested. But it does not follow that the same advice would apply to those who are vulnerable, or specially those considered extremely vulnerable.
The purpose of the advice and measures given to most people is only intended to reduce transmission. So when that is low, and measures allow, the policy will be to get back to normal as much as possible. Although that does not preclude some businesses finding their experience of employees working from home to have been a positive one so choosing to make it to some extent a normal practice.
But for those who are extremely vulnerable the purpose the government advice is to save lives, but the much greater risk of poor outcomes if infected. So whilst shielding will be paused as a measure in England and Northern Ireland, the lists of extremely vulnerable people will continue to be maintained with people added to them where their risk is deemed sufficient.
I would be very surprised if those who have been shielding will be expected to return to workplaces where working from home is possible. Not only because a reduced risk of infection does not reduce the risk of a severe outcome, but in case shielding should have to be unpaused. Something many experts think likely in winter. After telling people it is safe to go back to their normal lives whilst the virus is still active that suddenly it is unsafe.
The experience of over four months of isolation is something many will not want to repeat, and so given contradictory advice many will chose to dismiss it. Which is similar to what happened before lockdown when the government said not to go to pubs and restaurants yet allowed pubs and restaurants to stay open. Some people just followed the advice, but many others resolved the conflict by, quite logically, reasoning that if such places were unsafe they would have been closed.
If there is a change, I expect it to be a more granular approach to diagnosing those at the greatest risk so that the number of people who will need to shield will be reduced. I had expected that to happen last month when they instead announced an extension to the end of July.
From the most recent N.H.S. letter to clinicians:
• Now that more evidence regarding the COVID-19 risk factors is available, the government has commissioned work to develop and evaluate a clinical risk prediction model to estimate short term risks of catching and experiencing adverse outcomes from COVID-19 in adults.
• While this risk tool is being developed, and even though shielding guidance is being paused from 1 August, the existing SPL should be maintained. Clinicians should continue to identify and record people who may be clinically extremely vulnerable to coronavirus and ensure the individual is made aware of this. This is in case shielding (or other) measures are reintroduced at any point in the future, and it is necessary to quickly identify people who are considered clinically extremely vulnerable.
The tool being developed is based on a model created by the University of Oxford. Their FAQ notes that: "
Since emerging data suggests that ethnicity, age, and several health conditions are associated with risk of severe COVID-19, many of these factors are included in this research, including ethnicity."
So it is worth noting that it is possible that some people who have not previously been asked to shield, such as those with diabetes who are as older or from certain ethnicities, may be asked to do so in future.
www.phc.ox.ac.uk