66% of covid case admissions are from people in isolation at home ( New York )

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Amity Island

Amity Island

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I think that thread title might frighten the natives, it should specify that it applies to New York. Where most folk live in apartment blocks or flats where social distancing might be tricky with communal access.
 
Northerner said:
I wonder, though, how many people are self-isolating because they have developed symptoms?
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I'm not sure what to make of the stats.
mikeyB said:
Where most folk live in apartment blocks or flats where social distancing might be tricky with communal access.
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That's very similar to many cities in UK. Manchester city being a good example.
My concern is that it may be evidence that the lockdown is doing more harm than good? I'm not suggesting that those that are sick, very old or presenting symptoms shouldn't self isolate, though.

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UK's lockdown 'futile', says top Swedish epidemiologist

The man behind Sweden's Covid-19 strategy has claimed the UK's lockdown has been "futile" in dealing with the outbreak, the Telegraph reports. Johan Giesecke, a epidemiologist in the Scandinavian country who advises the World
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A really good thread reviewing the evidence about how transmission happens: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1257392347010215947.html

While the infectious inoculum required for infection is unknown, these studies indicate that close & prolonged contact is required for #COVID19 transmission. The risk is highest in enclosed environments; household, long-term care facilities and public transport.

High infection rates seen in household, friend & family gatherings, transport suggest that closed contacts in congregation is likely the key driver of productive transmission. Casual, short interactions are not the main driver of the epidemic though keep social distancing!

Increased rates of infection seen in enclosed & connected environments is in keeping with high infection rates seen in megacities, deprived areas, shelters. A recent preprint demonstrates that #COVID19 epidemic intensity is strongly shaped by crowding

Addendum: While we have limited data, similar high risk transmission pattern could be seen in other crowded & connected indoor environments such as crowded office spaces, other workplace environment, packed restaurants/cafes, cramped apartment buildings etc.

Conclusion 2: (a) we need to redesign our living/working spaces & rethink how to provide better, ventilated living/working environment for those who live in deprived & cramped areas; (b) avoid close, sustained contact indoors & in public transport, & maintain personal hygiene.
 
Also, just to note that this is the reason Wuhan set up isolation barracks, rather than sending people home. In line with WHO recommendations.
 
Makes utter sense Eddy - Pete has COPD and routinely picks up chest infections during the winter, which usually need at least one course of ABs and Steroids to shift, sometimes two. It has been many many years since either of us had separate or different social lives. He'll be suffering for nearly a fortnight - I maybe cough all one day, maybe no effect - but we've been to exactly the same place with the same folk.

When this happens though - we have usually been inside with a gang of friends, none of whom were coughing and sneezing. Happened in early Feb as usual. Difference between him and me was that I took several turns in the fresh air during the two evenings - I'm not actually a fresh air freak - fact is I went out for a fag or 2.
 
trophywench said:
Makes utter sense Eddy - Pete has COPD and routinely picks up chest infections during the winter, which usually need at least one course of ABs and Steroids to shift, sometimes two. It has been many many years since either of us had separate or different social lives. He'll be suffering for nearly a fortnight - I maybe cough all one day, maybe no effect - but we've been to exactly the same place with the same folk.

When this happens though - we have usually been inside with a gang of friends, none of whom were coughing and sneezing. Happened in early Feb as usual. Difference between him and me was that I took several turns in the fresh air during the two evenings - I'm not actually a fresh air freak - fact is I went out for a fag or 2.
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Did you see that post I put up on a big NHS study which came out today? Suggests that smoking reduces COVID-19 risk 🙂
 
This article alarmed me initially but ‘isolating’ doesn’t mean ‘shielding’ and there’s nothing to suggest those people weren’t coming into contact with others or going out for shopping etc. Support in the home for the very clinically vulnerable hasn’t been formalised in the US as it has here.



“If you notice, 18% of the people came from nursing homes, less than 1% came from jail or prison, 2% came from the homeless population, 2% from other congregate facilities, but 66% of the people were at home, which is shocking to us,” Cuomo said.

He‘s describing the general population looking at those stats and of course they are at home largely obeying the lockdown regulations but a very high proportion will still have had to venture out, shop and work. As the highest transmission of the virus occurs in the home, this probably isn’t so unusual. It’s members of the household bringing it in.

What would be alarming is if the infection rate was high amongst people like me and my immediate family who are truly shielding.
 
Amigo said:
As the highest transmission of the virus occurs in the home, this probably isn’t so unusual. It’s members of the household bringing it in.
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Yep. That was specifically stated in the Feb WHO report on Wuhan.
 
Eddy Edson said:
A really good thread reviewing the evidence about how transmission happens: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1257392347010215947.html

While the infectious inoculum required for infection is unknown, these studies indicate that close & prolonged contact is required for #COVID19 transmission. The risk is highest in enclosed environments; household, long-term care facilities and public transport.

High infection rates seen in household, friend & family gatherings, transport suggest that closed contacts in congregation is likely the key driver of productive transmission. Casual, short interactions are not the main driver of the epidemic though keep social distancing!

Increased rates of infection seen in enclosed & connected environments is in keeping with high infection rates seen in megacities, deprived areas, shelters. A recent preprint demonstrates that #COVID19 epidemic intensity is strongly shaped by crowding

Addendum: While we have limited data, similar high risk transmission pattern could be seen in other crowded & connected indoor environments such as crowded office spaces, other workplace environment, packed restaurants/cafes, cramped apartment buildings etc.

Conclusion 2: (a) we need to redesign our living/working spaces & rethink how to provide better, ventilated living/working environment for those who live in deprived & cramped areas; (b) avoid close, sustained contact indoors & in public transport, & maintain personal hygiene.
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Eddy,
Thanks for your great reply.

So, from what you've written, is it looking like keeping healthy people locked down is not the best strategy? Social distancing is a better strategy?
 
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