1 million people in UK have symptoms of long Covid, figures show

[Northerner]

An estimated 1 million people in private households in the UK reported experiencing long Covid in the four weeks to 2 May, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Of these people, an estimated 869,000 first had Covid-19 – or suspected they had Covid-19 – at least 12 weeks previously, while 376,000 first had the virus or suspected they had the virus at least one year ago.

Long Covid was estimated to be affecting the day-to-day activities of 650,000 people, with 192,000 reporting that their ability to undertake day-to-day activities had been limited a lot.

There had been a “marked increase” in the number of people with self-reported long Covid that had lasted for at least a year, the ONS said.

376,000 people in UK have had long Covid symptoms for at least a year – ONS

Data shows marked increase in self-reported cases of symptoms lasting 12 months or more

www.theguardian.com

 

[pm133]

There is absolutely no way we have 1 million people with long term post-viral fatigue in the UK as a result of covid.

That isn't an even remotely reasonable thing to suggest and the people publishing this need to look very closely at themselves. Any decent scientist would look at that number and see that it fails the "reasonable" test. Especially when the extent of their "research" was to ask people if they had it and take their self-diagnosis as gospel.

I am very much looking forward to covid being over so we don't need to be subjected to this pseudo-science any longer.

 

[trophywench]

Meanwhile people who really do have some difficulty breathing in and out as they already have properly diagnosed COPD can't get an appointment to see a respiratory consultant.

 

[Northerner]

Meanwhile people who really do have some difficulty breathing in and out as they already have properly diagnosed COPD can't get an appointment to see a respiratory consultant.

The narrative has centred so much on Covid for the past 14 months that I think Joe Public isn't really aware of what a massive shortfall in the availability of services there is for practically everything I shout at the TV every time I hear a government minister talk about how much they will put into things like mental health support - but it was already incredibly poor before the pandemic. They have a hell of a hill to climb to rebuild the NHS, and since they have been running it down for a decade I have zero confidence in any of their pronouncements

 

[Docb]

About 4.5 million are recorded as having had covid confirmed by a test and recorded on the gov system. There will be a lot, number unknown, who will have had it but were not tested which means that the total number of infections is unknown.
I am inclined to agree with @pm133 1m with long covid out of 4.5m does seem a bit unreasonable. I am not sure how many the total infections would need to be for it actually to be reasonable. Either way up, bandying about such numbers without heavy caveats and without strong cautionary warnings really is not helpful.

 

[Northerner]

About 4.5 million are recorded as having had covid confirmed by a test and recorded on the gov system. There will be a lot, number unknown, who will have had it but were not tested which means that the total number of infections is unknown.
I am inclined to agree with @pm133 1m with long covid out of 4.5m does seem a bit unreasonable. I am not sure how many the total infections would need to be for it actually to be reasonable. Either way up, bandying about such numbers without heavy caveats and without strong cautionary warnings really is not helpful.

By the same token, we shouldn't dismiss how people feel - this is a new virus and we really don't know what the long-term effects may be. It has attacked people in quite unexpected ways. Even a tenth of the estimate will be a significant burden for an already overstretched NHS

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Either way up, bandying about such numbers without heavy caveats and without strong cautionary warnings really is not helpful.

The article doesn't seem terrible to me. It mentions a number of figures and does say they're self-reported (when they are).

There's surely some who are reporting brain fog which is just normal ageing (combined with a very disruptive, isolating, and weird year and a bit), but there are obviously a bunch who've been injured in various ways (like Michael Rosen, who's largely lost sight in one eye and hearing on one side together with other things). It seems likely there's a bunch who have other long term harms (as there are from other viruses).

What'll be tricky is working out sensible categorisations of what Long Covid consists of (presumably there are different aspects which individuals suffer in different proportions). And distinguishing sufferers of those who were actually infected from those who suffer from them for some other reason (I'm guessing our government will want to try and limit support as much as they can get away with, so might want to try and restrict support to those who can show they were infected).

And offering some kinds of treatment. I've heard former GPs (and other healthcare people) talking about how they now find themselves unable to work because of fatigue (and/or other symptoms). It would be nice if there were treatments that were effective.

 

[pm133]

About 4.5 million are recorded as having had covid confirmed by a test and recorded on the gov system. There will be a lot, number unknown, who will have had it but were not tested which means that the total number of infections is unknown.
I am inclined to agree with @pm133 1m with long covid out of 4.5m does seem a bit unreasonable. I am not sure how many the total infections would need to be for it actually to be reasonable. Either way up, bandying about such numbers without heavy caveats and without strong cautionary warnings really is not helpful.

A good place to start gaining a feel for what a reasonable numbr should look like would be to see what proportion of normal viruses cause long trm post-virtal fatigue symptom.

I don't know what that number is but I'd expect it to be under 1%.

So for 4.5 million cases of covid I'd expect no more than 45,000.

 

[pm133]

By the same token, we shouldn't dismiss how people feel

Maybe not, but we shouldn't be expecting non-medical people to be capable of accurately self-diagnosing either. What kind of researcher thinks it's valid to even ask that question of non-medical people with the intention of publishing their responses as "science"? The researcher who suggested that as a project should have been laughed out of the office by their colleagues and the funding body.

 

[pm133]

To make matters worse, to qualify as having "long covid" you only need to have symptoms for a few weeks. That is just completely ridiculous.

The ONS say that only about 1 in 10 have symptoms lasting longer than a couple of months amongst those self-diagnosing so it's clearly going to be considerably less than that in reality. So I think my initial expectation of 1 in 100 is probably not an unreasonable guess.

I think we can safely place this report straight into the bin where it belongs. An absolute scam of a report and a disgraceful attention grabbing headline.

They should set the bar at 6 months of symptoms before they call it long covid and then we might get a more sensible picture. Anything under that time-frame is just a waste of our time and energy.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

To make matters worse, to qualify as having "long covid" you only need to have symptoms for a few weeks. That is just completely ridiculous.

Yes, I'm not sure why anyone cares about such short term things. Might matter for planning since you don't want lots of people unable to work for a few weeks. (Similarly, vaccinating children might be valuable if it reduces their chances of being off school enough.)

 

[pm133]

Yes, I'm not sure why anyone cares about such short term things. Might matter for planning since you don't want lots of people unable to work for a few weeks. (Similarly, vaccinating children might be valuable if it reduces their chances of being off school enough.)

I used to see this sort of thing in research when there was data but it wasn't telling a story worthy of publication. People have spent months looking into the subject and collecting data and there's nothing to say.
So they start looking for a story.
Any story.
Because their career depends on continued funding.
And continued funding requires publication of results.
So researchers "find" a story. You can always find a story in statistical data if you set your parameters "properly". The parameters they setup in this report were including self-diagnosis and calling a few weeks of symptoms "Long". It's borderline fraudulent. It's certainly not rigorous science. And it;'s absolutely not good enough that they mention the self-diagnosis part in the report. That isn't being professional. And you can see why. The media play down the self-diagnosis part (which is the only crucial piece of information) and went with a screaming headline about 1 million people suffering.

I used to use the word "reaching" to describe it. As in "You're reaching for a conclusion which isn't justified by the data".
My strong suspicion is that this report is an example of that.

It's a distraction that we simply don't need when we have actual problems to solve - and not just from the ongoing covid restrictions and the economy. @trophywench talks about other problems which have simply been shelved because of all this stuff.

Reports like this need called out for what they are in my opinion.

 

[Bruce Stephens]

Who's children?

Children whose parents also consent. I mean that that's a potential direct benefit to the children of vaccination.

(Whether it's sufficient to balance the risks of vaccination is another question. I tend to think our current society overvalues time spent in schools. When I was a child it was routine for each of us to be out of school for measles, mumps, etc., though I guess in this case we're thinking more of older children.)

I still doubt the JCVI will recommend vaccinating children generally. Rather, it'll mean that some children who're shielding (or living with someone who's shielding) will be allowed to be vaccinated.

 

[mikeyB]

Like @pm133, I don't believe the 1 million figure. It's pure invention. Of the people I know who have had Covid only one has had symptoms continually since infection, and that is my daughter. Nobody else has had "long Covid" that I know. If 1 million folk had such symptoms, the NHS would be swamped, and it isn't.

What all these folk are suffering from is a year of almost complete inactivity. That of itself can produce lethargy and "brain fog". It's only the folk who've been hospitalised and ventilated that are likely to have ongoing symptoms. And not folk who just self report, without testing, that they've had Covid, and self report untreated symptoms.

 

[trophywench]

Brain fog - hey! - think we both have that from never hearing hardly anybody talking about anything other than f-ing Covid for 15 months!

 

[pm133]

Brain fog - hey! - think we both have that from never hearing hardly anybody talking about anything other than f-ing Covid for 15 months!

You must be suffering brain fog. You've come onto a covid thread to complain about people talking about covid. 😛